Israel’s military-dominated posture is a defining factor in Middle Eastern regional dynamics.
Growing insecurity and violence faced by Israeli citizens led to a widespread rejection of the two-state solution and deepened societal divisions within Israel.
The Israeli invasion of Lebanon began on June 6, 1982, and resulted in the occupation of Beirut.
Following the October 7, 2023, Hamas attacks, the Middle East experienced an escalation of direct and proxy wars involving Israel, Iran, Türkiye, and armed groups including Hamas, Hezbollah, the Houthis, and Syrian factions.
Prior to October 2023, the United Arab Emirates withdrew from Yemen, redirected its attention to other conflict zones, and deepened its diplomatic, trade, and security ties with Israel.
Western strategic prioritization of Israel's regional integration aimed to achieve broad Arab normalization with Israel, which circumvented a resolution to the Palestinian question and disregarded the principles of the 2002 Arab Peace Initiative.
Before 2011, Türkiye, led by Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and the Justice and Development Party (AKP), maintained strong relations with regional neighbors, including a cooperative partnership with Syria and President Bashar al-Assad centered on a shared stance of 'resistance' to Israel.
Israel should pursue regional consensus aimed at peaceful settlements, collective security arrangements, and the delineation of mutually respected boundaries and spheres of influence to foster long-term stability.
The Hamas attacks of October 7, 2023, and the subsequent Israeli military response have caused unprecedented levels of suffering in Gaza, Lebanon, and other affected areas, resulting in mass displacement and the commission of mass crimes.
Through 2011, Israeli governments increasingly abandoned the commitments of the 2002 Arab Peace Initiative and the 1993 Oslo Accords, diminishing prospects for a peaceful resolution to the conflict.
Iran's antagonistic approach toward Israel fueled structural tensions with Egypt and Jordan, both of which are committed to peace initiatives and the pursuit of a two-state solution.
Military operations in the 1956 Tripartite Aggression ceased on November 7, 1956, followed by the withdrawal of British, French, and Israeli troops.
Iran implemented a regional strategy designed to deter the United States and Israel from threatening Iranian security, targeting Iranian nuclear infrastructure, or undermining the military capabilities of Iranian allies.
Israel’s actions pose direct threats to the national interests of Egypt and Jordan, specifically through the risk of forced Palestinian displacement into their territories.
The United Arab Emirates was the only Arab state that expressed a willingness to participate in a peacekeeping force in Gaza after the war, though it struggled to achieve meaningful concessions from Israel regarding a ceasefire or humanitarian aid.
Following the 2011 uprisings, Israel maintained its policy of military hegemony rather than moderating its use of military force, halting its occupation, curbing settlement expansion, or lifting the blockade on Palestinian territories.
Egypt, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Türkiye, Israel, and Iran recalibrated their foreign policies in response to the instability and shifting landscape caused by the Arab Spring.
Between 2015 and 2023, Israeli governments led by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu maintained consistent domestic and regional policies despite shifting regional concerns regarding terrorism.
The interplay between Iran and Israel has entrenched the Middle East in a protracted war of attrition, characterized by mutual escalations that perpetuate instability and a cycle of violence.
Prior to October 7, 2023, Saudi Arabia focused on internal reforms under its Vision 2030 framework, pursued new security agreements with the United States, and explored the possibility of normalizing relations with Israel.
The Arab Spring uprisings caused radical changes to the foreign policies of Egypt, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Türkiye, Israel, and Iran, similar to how previous conflicts like the Iran-Iraq War, the Iraqi invasion of Kuwait, and the American invasion of Iraq reshaped the region.
The Middle East's instability is fueled by its status as a battleground for direct and proxy conflicts, specifically Israel's rivalry with Iran and a broader regional arms race.
The Abraham Accords facilitated increased trade, diplomatic, political, and security cooperation between the signatory nations and Israel.
Egypt, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Türkiye have rejected Israeli plans for the displacement of Palestinians, settlement expansion, and the violation of Lebanese sovereignty.
Regional actors are currently involved in direct or proxy conflicts: Israel is in tension with Iran; Türkiye is intervening in Syria and Iraq; the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia are militarily involved in Yemen; and Egypt is involved in Libya, Sudan, and the Horn of Africa.
The United Arab Emirates faced difficulty mitigating tensions between Israel and Iran, as escalating hostilities undermined the country's efforts to shield the Gulf region from the fallout of the broader conflict.
The United States and numerous Western governments have continued to supply weapons, ammunition, and financial support to Israel during the ongoing conflict.
Egypt worked to de-escalate recurring armed confrontations between Hamas and Israel in the Gaza Strip to maintain regional stability and refocus international attention on the Palestinian cause.
The United Arab Emirates has ended its military involvement in Yemen and redirected its focus toward influencing civil conflicts in Sudan and Libya while maintaining close ties with Israel.
United States policy conditions regional normalization agreements with Israel on Saudi Arabia's normalization with Israel, without addressing Palestinian rights or the two-state solution, which undermines Saudi ambitions.
Israel's confrontations with the Houthis in Yemen have escalated tensions in the Red Sea, jeopardizing maritime security and contributing to regional instability.
UN Security Council Resolution 1701 established international peacekeeping forces in Lebanon, but key provisions requiring compliance from Israel and Hezbollah remained unfulfilled.
The Six-Day War, fought from June 5 to June 10, 1967, resulted in the defeat of the Arab armies of Jordan, Egypt, and Syria by Israel.
The peace treaty signed between Lebanon and Israel on May 17, 1983, collapsed shortly after its signing despite American and European diplomatic efforts.
Iran's traditional strategies to regain influence, such as reasserting the power of its allies in Gaza and Lebanon, rallying the Assad regime in Syria, or deploying Iraqi and Yemeni militias in cross-border operations against Israel, have proven inadequate.
To achieve long-term objectives in Syria—including integrating Turkish-backed militias, pressuring Kurdish factions, returning Syrian refugees, and leading reconstruction—Türkiye must coordinate with Iran, Israel, Egypt, and Gulf States.
Türkiye coordinated with Egypt, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates to exert pressure on the Israeli government to halt military operations and end the war.
The War of Attrition between Egypt and Israel (1969–1970) concluded with a U.S.-initiated mutual ceasefire that allowed for the resumption of international mediation but did not compel Israel to implement UN Resolution 242.
Prior to October 7, 2023, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan extended diplomatic overtures to Benjamin Netanyahu’s government, leading to the normalization of relations between Türkiye and Israel.
Israel has created demilitarized zones in northern Gaza and southern Lebanon through the forced displacement of populations.
Successive Israeli governments leveraged American support to advance their regional objectives.
Israeli policies regarding the West Bank, East Jerusalem, and the Gaza Strip eroded the foundations of the peace process established by the 1979 Egyptian-Israeli Peace Treaty, the 1993 Oslo Accords, and the 1994 Wadi Araba Agreement with Jordan.
Israel's military campaigns have crippled much of the military infrastructure of Hamas and its allied Palestinian factions, and depleted Hezbollah's stockpiles of Iranian-supplied rockets and weaponry.
Israel refused to withdraw from the Syrian Golan Heights, engaged in military conflicts with Hezbollah, including the 2006 war, and conducted repeated strikes against Iranian allies, often in coordination with the United States.
The ongoing conflict in the Middle East, driven by the ambitions of Israel and Iran, has resulted in significant human suffering, material destruction, and the erosion of regional stability, hindering prospects for peace and sustainable development.
The United Arab Emirates spearheaded the 2020 Abraham Accords, which led Bahrain, Morocco, and Sudan to normalize their diplomatic relations with Israel.
Israeli actions before 2011 perpetuated regional instability and weakened the ability of Tel Aviv to establish diplomatic and security agreements across the Middle East and North Africa.
Israel maintained a 'cold peace' with Egypt and Jordan, frequently engaged in military clashes with Hamas and allied factions, and intensified the siege of Gaza, which undermined potential for long-term regional stability.
The wars in Gaza and Lebanon, combined with Israel’s rejection of the two-state solution, presented significant challenges to the United Arab Emirates' efforts to consolidate regional and international alliances.
Following the 1967 Six-Day War, Jordan, Egypt, and Syria agreed to UN Security Council Resolutions 234, 235, and 236, which established a ceasefire but did not require Israel to withdraw its forces from the West Bank, East Jerusalem, Sinai, or the Golan Heights.
Israel has targeted key leadership figures within Hamas and Hezbollah, which has weakened the organizational and political influence of these groups in Palestinian territories and Lebanon.
In November 1967, the UN Security Council adopted Resolution 242, which contained linguistic ambiguity regarding Israel's withdrawal from occupied territories; the Arabic version demanded withdrawal from 'the occupied Arab territories,' while the English version called for withdrawal from 'occupied Arab territories.'
Saudi Arabia pursued a dual-track foreign policy strategy: strengthening its strategic alliance with the United States, including seeking security guarantees and support for a peaceful nuclear program, while simultaneously exploring normalization with Israel, contingent on Israeli acceptance of a Palestinian state.
Israel’s relationships with Egypt and Jordan are under considerable strain due to Benjamin Netanyahu’s strategy, which threatens to entrench a prolonged cycle of violence, destruction, and instability.
The Hamas attacks on October 7, 2023, and the subsequent Israeli military response dismantled efforts at regional appeasement, openness, and containment, while exposing the fragility of ongoing mediation and negotiation processes.
Between 2015 and 2023, Israel employed a dual strategy of aggressive action by far-right and religious governments against Palestinians and Iranian allies, alongside calculated diplomatic openness toward select regional actors.
Prior to October 7, 2023, Israel established security alliances with major Arab states including Egypt, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Jordan, and Türkiye.
Egypt's relationship with Israel is under strain due to Israel's refusal to permit humanitarian aid into Gaza, unwillingness to transfer control of the Rafah crossing to Palestinian authorities, and military incursions into the demilitarized Philadelphi Corridor.
Israel, Britain, and France launched the Tripartite Aggression in October 1956 in response to Egypt's nationalization of the Suez Canal and Egypt's agreement to purchase Soviet-made arms via Czechoslovakia.
Israel was involved in a war for over a year that spiraled beyond its control until a ceasefire agreement took effect on January 19, 2025.
Saudi Arabia's ability to shield itself from regional fallout is threatened by direct and proxy conflicts between Israel, Iran, and Türkiye, necessitating a robust collective security arrangement to achieve its domestic and strategic priorities.
Recep Tayyip Erdoğan condemned Israeli war crimes, occupation policies, and settlement expansion, while emphasizing Türkiye’s readiness to play a stabilizing role in securing peace in Palestine and the broader Arab Levant after the conflict.
Abu Dhabi is concerned about the potential fallout from the collapse of the Bashar al-Assad regime in Syria, the resurgence of Islamist groups in Syria, and the geopolitical competition among Türkiye, Iran, and Israel in the Arab Mashreq.
Successive Israeli right-wing governments intensified occupation and settlement practices in the West Bank and East Jerusalem while maintaining a blockade on the Gaza Strip that began in 2007.
International focus prior to the October 2023 Gaza war was largely directed toward the normalization of the Abraham Accords, which involved Israel, the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, and Morocco.
Türkiye maintains a dual approach toward Israel, characterized by public condemnation of Israeli actions alongside covert military and operational cooperation in Syria.
Prior to October 2023, Israel pursued a fait accompli strategy aimed at extinguishing the Palestinian cause by escalating settlement activities in the West Bank and East Jerusalem, imposing a blockade on Gaza, and eroding the governance capacity of the Palestinian National Authority.
Egypt, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Türkiye, Israel, and Iran possess significant political, military, economic, and diplomatic influence that allows them to impact regional stability in the Middle East.
Israel's strategic goals prior to October 7, 2023, included marginalizing the Palestinian cause, eroding prospects for a two-state solution, shifting the regional agenda toward confronting Iran and its allies, combating terrorism, and establishing security alliances with Arab states.
The Second Lebanon War, fought between Israel and Hezbollah, lasted just over 30 days, beginning on July 12, 2006, and concluding on August 14, 2006.
The 1979 Egyptian-Israeli peace treaty established diplomatic relations between Egypt and Israel, but Israel's current leadership is no longer considered a reliable partner for regional peace or diplomacy by the author.
Israel's ongoing war in Gaza, obstruction of humanitarian aid, and disregard for Egypt's red lines regarding the Philadelphi Corridor and the Rafah crossing have placed the peace treaty between Egypt and Israel in a crisis.
Nearly 50,000 Palestinians and thousands of Lebanese have died in the ongoing conflict involving Israel.
Israel, Iran, Türkiye, and the United Arab Emirates continue to wield military capabilities in ways that perpetuate cycles of violence and delay meaningful collective action in the Middle East.
The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) mobilized Shiite militias in Iraq to counter United States influence, while Hezbollah in Lebanon and Syria actively targeted Israeli assets and interests.
In recent decades, Israeli politics have shifted toward the extreme and religious right, which opposes the 'land for peace' principle and rejects the two-state solution as a viable method for resolving the Palestinian issue.
Israel established bilateral counterterrorism agreements with Egypt and collaborated with Jordan and the United Arab Emirates on water resource management.
Benjamin Netanyahu and his far-right coalition lack the means to bring the conflicts they have perpetuated to a conclusive end, leaving Israel increasingly isolated in the Middle East.
Israeli military strikes in Syria targeting Iran's military presence have accelerated the dissolution of the Assad regime, resulting in a state of anarchy dominated by competing armed factions.
To break free from the cycle of perpetual conflict, Israel must abandon policies rooted in coercion and unilateral dominance, including reevaluating its refusal to recognize Palestinian self-determination and the viability of a two-state solution.
Since October 2023, Israeli military operations in Lebanon have endangered civilian lives, devastated infrastructure, and undermined Lebanese sovereignty under the stated goals of neutralizing Hezbollah militarily, financially, and organizationally, removing it from the border area, and cutting off its access to Iranian weapons.
Iran and Israel have played central roles in perpetuating violence across Palestine, Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, and Yemen.
Israel escalated its military offensives against Iran and its proxies in Syria, Iraq, and Yemen in response to attacks from the Iranian bloc.
Israel's current strategic focus is countering Shiite militias in Iraq and the Houthis in Yemen to limit Iranian regional leverage.
The author argues that U.S. military, economic, and diplomatic support for Israel has shielded Israeli actions from consequences, emboldening Israel to perpetuate its occupation and dismantle Palestinian aspirations.
Israel has emerged as a strategic winner in the current Middle East conflict, with Hamas, Hezbollah, Iran, and their allies substantially weakened, though the country remains in a precarious position.
Since its establishment in 1948, Israel has consistently been involved in military confrontations with its neighboring countries.
The second disengagement agreement between Egypt and Israel, facilitated by U.S. diplomatic efforts in September 1975, led to subsequent negotiations and the restoration of the Sinai Peninsula to Egyptian sovereignty.
Israel's military campaigns in Gaza and Lebanon have resulted in significant human casualties and widespread devastation, particularly in Shiite-majority areas of Lebanon.
Western diplomatic efforts were directed toward deepening Israel’s regional integration by focusing on security, diplomacy, trade, and investment.
Before October 7, 2023, regional actors adopted varied strategies to increase security: Saudi Arabia sought to ease tensions with Iran, the United Arab Emirates focused on deepening cooperation with Israel, Egypt prioritized national security amidst domestic challenges, and Türkiye reduced its engagement in regional conflicts.
Israel and Egypt collaborate to manage border tensions and address crises related to Gaza.
Israel conducted targeted military strikes against Palestinian factions and Iranian-backed forces located in Lebanon, Syria, and Iraq.
The feasibility of a collective regional security endeavor led by Saudi Arabia, Egypt, the UAE, Türkiye, Israel, and Iran is contingent on overcoming significant obstacles, including mutual distrust, conflicting strategic goals, and the divergent policies of their respective governments.
Lebanese militants continued resistance against Israeli forces until the militants successfully expelled the Israeli forces from Lebanon by 2000.
Israel intensified pressure on Iran and its state and nonstate allies, viewing them as existential threats to Israeli national security.