Knowledge Tree
Gulf states
Facts (52)
Sources
Iran and the Gulf: Why Hedging Is No Longer Enough warontherocks.com Feb 20, 2026 19 facts
claimGulf states are skeptical that the United States can manage the escalation it initiates, deter retaliation against Gulf partners, or take responsibility for the aftermath of a crisis.
claimGulf states possess economic and diplomatic tools—including trade, transit access, ports, airspace, energy interdependence, and investment flows—that can influence Iran's strategic calculus if used collectively and consistently.
claimDuring recent protests in Iran, most Gulf states actively opposed calls from Washington for military strikes against Iran, judging that escalation would destabilize the region without producing meaningful political change.
procedureTo prepare for future crises, Gulf states should agree on red lines, burden sharing, communication channels, and humanitarian responses before a crisis unfolds.
claimGulf states believe they possess limited leverage over Iran's trajectory, though this leverage could be significant if deployed collectively and effectively.
claimGulf states fear that military escalation against Iran would leave their cities, infrastructure, and populations directly exposed to Iranian retaliation.
perspectiveGulf states view the binary policy perspective held by Washington and Tel Aviv regarding Iran as detached from the reality of their own exposure to regional instability.
claimGulf states have not achieved significant, game-changing returns from their investments in political Islam, nonstate actors, or the current state system.
claimGulf states have shifted their regional threat perception to view themselves as frontline stakeholders in Iranian crises rather than distant observers.
claimExternal economic or diplomatic engagement by Gulf states is limited in its ability to alter Iran's core strategic posture or internal political balance due to sanctions regimes, Iran's domestic political economy, and the centrality of security institutions in Iranian decision-making.
claimGulf states tend to unify during times of crisis, and an unstable Iran is considered one such crisis that necessitates a common approach.
accountThe Gulf states' exposure to the 2025 Iranian and Israeli attacks on Qatar, and the subsequent Joint Defense Council statements in September and November 2025, demonstrate that Gulf defense integration remains a work in progress.
claimGulf states' hedging strategies, which focus on deescalation and crisis management, are becoming a constraint as uncertainty in Iran becomes structural rather than episodic.
claimGulf states maintain a long-term goal of achieving strategic autonomy, which requires the capacity to shape regional outcomes rather than merely insulating against them.
claimIntra-Gulf disputes, such as the ongoing Saudi-Emirati disagreement and the previous conflict with Qatar, demonstrate that Gulf states pursue different strategies to achieve regime survival and financial stability.
claimGulf states have historically underused their economic and diplomatic tools to influence Iran because they seek to avoid friction with the United States, limit their own risk exposure, and face intra-Gulf divergences.
perspectiveGulf states are increasingly pursuing strategic autonomy due to doubts regarding the reliability and effectiveness of external security providers, specifically the United States.
claimSince the 2023 Saudi-Iranian détente, Gulf states have prioritized mediation, diplomacy, and crisis management.
claimGulf states' tools are unlikely to shape Iran's regime survival, ideological orientation, or major security decisions.
Analysis - The Iran War: Strategic Implications for Israel, the Gulf ... elnetwork.eu Mar 16, 2026 16 facts
claimGulf states are currently acting below the threshold of open conflict with Iran, undertaking covert measures to assist the broader war effort while avoiding formal public acknowledgment to maintain the possibility of future diplomatic relations.
claimA narrative could emerge portraying Israel as a driver of the war and therefore partially responsible for the consequences suffered by the Gulf states.
claimGulf states are hesitant to openly align with the front opposing Iran due to a dual dilemma: concerns regarding the long-term credibility of the United States' commitment and the ambiguity of messages received from Tehran.
claimGulf states are unlikely to favor a regional order in which Israel is perceived as a dominant actor and may seek to counterbalance this through closer cooperation with countries such as Pakistan or Turkey.
perspectiveGulf leaders fear that the United States, particularly under President Donald Trump, might prematurely declare victory and reduce its involvement in the conflict, leaving the Gulf states to face a vengeful Iranian regime alone.
claimThe Gulf states, comprising Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Qatar, Oman, Bahrain, and Kuwait, are not formal parties to the war with Iran but are positioned at the center of the conflict due to their geographic proximity and vulnerability.
claimIsrael is geographically distant from Iran and may accept or prefer regional instability, whereas Gulf states fear that instability in Iran could undermine their own security and regional stability.
claimEurope has struggled to formulate a clear strategy or fully realize the potential of its relationships with Gulf states.
claimA prolonged war or the survival of the Iranian regime could encourage Gulf states to revert to a strategy of balancing among regional powers and reduce the scope of their cooperation with Israel.
claimOvert cooperation between Gulf states and Israel remains sensitive, particularly due to Israeli policy regarding the Palestinian issue.
claimIf Iran is perceived as less threatening at the end of the war, the motivation of Gulf states to pursue close security ties with Israel may diminish.
claimThe war with Iran has showcased Israel's advantages in missile defense, early warning systems, and cyber defense, which are capabilities likely to attract interest from Gulf states facing similar threats.
claimEurope is seeking to redefine its role in the Persian Gulf due to the potential gradual distancing of the United States from the region, the growing influence of China, and internal challenges within Gulf states.
claimIf the Iranian regime remains in power at the end of the war, Gulf states may be encouraged to return to a policy of balancing major regional powers.
claimThe European Union has increased its imports of oil and gas from Gulf states, making damage to regional energy infrastructure or threats to shipping routes in the Persian Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz a direct threat to European energy security.
claimGulf states opposed an attack on Iran because they anticipated that the resulting war would impose significant costs on them, despite not necessarily viewing an attack as unjustified.
Miscellanea: The War in Iran - A Collection of Unmitigated Pedantry acoup.blog Mar 25, 2026 3 facts
claimGulf States currently rely on the United States for protection against Iranian attacks.
claimThe author observes that the Gulf states, as small states, often find their fate largely determined by the actions of larger powers.
claimThe United States, Iran, Israel, the Gulf states, and the global energy-consuming community are all poorer, more vulnerable, and more resource-precarious as a result of the war.
After the War: Rethinking Regional Security in the Middle ... arab-reform.net Mar 13, 2026 2 facts
claimGulf states, Iraq, Lebanon, and Yemen are identified as pressure points through which Iran can threaten the wider regional and international system.
measurementSIPRI reported a major regional surge in military expenditure in the Middle East in 2024, characterized by steep increases in spending by Israel and Türkiye and persistently high spending by Gulf states.
Iran War: A Defining Moment for the Middle East—Global Analysis ... ajc.org 2 facts
perspectiveEuropean Parliament President Roberta Metsola condemned Iranian attacks on Israel and Gulf states and voiced support for democratic change in Iran, while cautioning against a spiral of escalation.
claimFrance, Germany, and the United Kingdom have coordinated defensive support for countries targeted by the Iranian regime, including Israel and Gulf states.
Opportunities for Collective Regional Security in the Middle East carnegieendowment.org Mar 5, 2025 2 facts
perspectiveTo achieve long-term objectives in Syria—including integrating Turkish-backed militias, pressuring Kurdish factions, returning Syrian refugees, and leading reconstruction—Türkiye must coordinate with Iran, Israel, Egypt, and Gulf States.
accountBefore 2011, Türkiye maintained positive relations with Iraq and Iran while fostering trade, economic, and political collaborations with Gulf states, Egypt, and North African Arab countries.
Power Transition in the Middle East: The Intersection of US Global ... populismstudies.org Mar 15, 2026 1 fact
claimThe Organization of Islamic Cooperation (OIC) condemned Israeli attacks on Iran, a stance that coexists with muted and ambivalent official reactions from Gulf states.
Geopolitical, Strategic, and Humanitarian Implications of ... ardd-jo.org 4 days ago 1 fact
claimMissile interceptor stockpiles are reportedly depleting, which could expose Israel and Gulf states to greater damage if Iran escalates the conflict.
A Region at Capacity: War, Displacement, and the Limits of ... mecouncil.org 2 days ago 1 fact
claimGulf states utilize revenues from oil and natural gas to host migrants, which supports their economic development.
Winners and Losers: Russia, China, and Europe Respond to the ... carnegieendowment.org 1 fact
claimThe global economy, the Gulf states, and civilians in the conflict zone are experiencing negative impacts from the ongoing war between the United States, Israel, and Iran.
Experts react: How the US war with Iran is playing out around the ... atlanticcouncil.org Mar 1, 2026 1 fact
claimGulf states have historically supported mediation efforts to reduce tensions and sustain dialogue, with Oman and Qatar leading many of these initiatives.
Gilbert Doctorow: Russia & China Reconsider U.S. Relations Over ... singjupost.com Mar 25, 2026 1 fact
claimThe 'Iran war' could lead to the destruction of Gulf states if their desalination plants are targeted.
The Middle East Conflict and the Future of the Region's Political Order internationalaffairs.org.au Mar 17, 2026 1 fact
measurementEight U.S. soldiers and several additional individuals in Gulf states have been reported killed as the conflict between the United States, Israel, and Iran has spread across the region.
Escalation with Iran: Understanding the Regional and Global ... thesoufancenter.org 1 fact
claimGulf states hosting U.S. military bases became targets of Iranian retaliatory strikes following the U.S. and Israeli operations known as Operation Epic Fury and Operation Roaring Lion.