Tensions between Egypt and Ethiopia remain acute regarding the distribution of the Nile's waters.
The post-October 2023 conflict has disrupted the regional agendas of Saudi Arabia and the UAE, despite their shared interest with Egypt and Türkiye in conflict resolution.
Iran's antagonistic approach toward Israel fueled structural tensions with Egypt and Jordan, both of which are committed to peace initiatives and the pursuit of a two-state solution.
Ethiopia is the upstream nation with the greatest influence over the distribution of the Nile's waters among its basin countries, which include Tanzania, Uganda, Rwanda, Burundi, the Democratic Republic of Congo, Kenya, Eritrea, South Sudan, Sudan, and Egypt.
Israel’s actions pose direct threats to the national interests of Egypt and Jordan, specifically through the risk of forced Palestinian displacement into their territories.
Egypt, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Türkiye, Israel, and Iran recalibrated their foreign policies in response to the instability and shifting landscape caused by the Arab Spring.
The Egyptian government conducted military operations against terrorist groups in eastern Libya that had destabilized the border region and killed twenty-one Egyptian Copts in 2015.
Iran’s diplomatic and economic gains achieved between 2020 and 2023, including restored relations with Saudi Arabia, revitalized trade with the UAE, and emerging dialogues with Egypt and Jordan, have eroded due to the strains of the war.
Terrorist groups operating in Libya during the civil war spread violence beyond Libyan borders, threatening Egypt's security and the safety of Egyptian nationals working in Libya.
Ankara unilaterally backed new governments led by the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt and Tunisia, despite apprehension from significant factions within Egyptian and Tunisian society regarding the election of those leaders.
The Arab Spring uprisings caused radical changes to the foreign policies of Egypt, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Türkiye, Israel, and Iran, similar to how previous conflicts like the Iran-Iraq War, the Iraqi invasion of Kuwait, and the American invasion of Iraq reshaped the region.
Naguib Mahfouz, a Nobel laureate and chronicler of Egypt's and the Middle East's twentieth-century history, emphasized that a just and comprehensive peace is the singular path to salvation amid conflict.
Egypt, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Türkiye have rejected Israeli plans for the displacement of Palestinians, settlement expansion, and the violation of Lebanese sovereignty.
Regional actors are currently involved in direct or proxy conflicts: Israel is in tension with Iran; Türkiye is intervening in Syria and Iraq; the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia are militarily involved in Yemen; and Egypt is involved in Libya, Sudan, and the Horn of Africa.
Egypt plays an indispensable role in mitigating regional instability and has a critical stake in Gaza and the Palestinian cause.
The government of Egypt perceived Türkiye's involvement in the Libyan civil war as a direct threat to Egyptian vital interests and national security, leading to escalated tensions between the two nations.
Iran expanded trade and investment ties with the United Arab Emirates and initiated limited political engagement with Egypt as part of a strategic pivot to reduce regional tensions.
The Egyptian government employed military and diplomatic strategies to prevent Turkish incursions into western Libya and collaborated with the United Nations to develop a roadmap for political, legislative, executive, and judicial institution building.
The Six-Day War, fought from June 5 to June 10, 1967, resulted in the defeat of the Arab armies of Jordan, Egypt, and Syria by Israel.
Prior to the October 2023 Gaza war, Egypt and Jordan consistently emphasized the importance of the Palestinian cause, the need to revive peace negotiations, and the principle of land for peace.
Between 2014 and 2021, Egypt's primary security focus was its eastern border with the Gaza Strip, which was used as a corridor to smuggle weapons and ammunition to terrorist groups operating in the Sinai Peninsula.
To achieve long-term objectives in Syria—including integrating Turkish-backed militias, pressuring Kurdish factions, returning Syrian refugees, and leading reconstruction—Türkiye must coordinate with Iran, Israel, Egypt, and Gulf States.
Türkiye coordinated with Egypt, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates to exert pressure on the Israeli government to halt military operations and end the war.
The War of Attrition between Egypt and Israel (1969–1970) concluded with a U.S.-initiated mutual ceasefire that allowed for the resumption of international mediation but did not compel Israel to implement UN Resolution 242.
Since October 2023, Egypt has attempted to mitigate regional instability by collaborating with Ankara, Riyadh, and Abu Dhabi, while maintaining a cautious diplomatic approach toward Tehran and demonstrating strategic restraint with Tel Aviv.
Egypt has engaged in diplomatic efforts that pressured Benjamin Netanyahu’s government to publicly disavow plans for the forced displacement of Palestinians from Gaza.
The proposed regional security grouping, modeled after the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE), would be led by Egypt and Saudi Arabia and invite participation from all Middle Eastern states and regional organizations like the League of Arab States and the Gulf Cooperation Council.
The government of Türkiye aligned itself with the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt and provided refuge to members of the group who fled Egypt following the organization's overthrow in 2013.
Israel maintained a 'cold peace' with Egypt and Jordan, frequently engaged in military clashes with Hamas and allied factions, and intensified the siege of Gaza, which undermined potential for long-term regional stability.
Following the 1967 Six-Day War, Jordan, Egypt, and Syria agreed to UN Security Council Resolutions 234, 235, and 236, which established a ceasefire but did not require Israel to withdraw its forces from the West Bank, East Jerusalem, Sinai, or the Golan Heights.
Egypt's foreign policy strategy is pressured by the persistent civil conflict in Libya to its west.
Türkiye has achieved strategic gains in Syria by capitalizing on Iran’s diminishing influence in the Arab Mashreq and coordinating diplomatically with Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Egypt.
Israel’s relationships with Egypt and Jordan are under considerable strain due to Benjamin Netanyahu’s strategy, which threatens to entrench a prolonged cycle of violence, destruction, and instability.
In 2015, Egypt, Ethiopia, and Sudan signed the 'Renaissance Dam Document,' a declaration of principles aimed at ensuring the equitable sharing of the Nile waters.
Prior to October 7, 2023, Israel established security alliances with major Arab states including Egypt, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Jordan, and Türkiye.
Before 2011, Türkiye maintained positive relations with Iraq and Iran while fostering trade, economic, and political collaborations with Gulf states, Egypt, and North African Arab countries.
Egypt's foreign policy experienced instability between 2011 and 2013, during which time the country distanced itself from active engagement in most regional issues.
Egypt faces national security threats from its borders adjoining crisis zones, including fallout from Israeli incursions into Gaza, a regional arms race, the socioeconomic strain of integrating refugees, and declining revenues from the Suez Canal.
The Arab Spring resulted in the ousting of rulers in Tunisia and Egypt, and the descent of Libya, Syria, and Yemen into civil war.
Egypt's relationship with Israel is under strain due to Israel's refusal to permit humanitarian aid into Gaza, unwillingness to transfer control of the Rafah crossing to Palestinian authorities, and military incursions into the demilitarized Philadelphi Corridor.
Israel, Britain, and France launched the Tripartite Aggression in October 1956 in response to Egypt's nationalization of the Suez Canal and Egypt's agreement to purchase Soviet-made arms via Czechoslovakia.
Egypt faces particularly high stakes regarding the current regional conflicts.
Egypt is actively working to stabilize Libya, Sudan, and the Horn of Africa to counter the expanding influence of Ethiopia in Somaliland.
The Ethiopian government pursued a unilateral approach to the construction, operation, and filling of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam, which Egypt and Sudan viewed as a disregard for their rights and concerns.
The October 1973 War, launched by Egypt and Syria to liberate occupied territories, lasted 19 days and resulted in the UN Security Council adopting Resolutions 338, 339, and 340 to call for a ceasefire.
Türkiye eased its hostile stance toward Egypt, which led to joint security arrangements in Libya that resulted in relative stability.
Egypt faces regional instability from Sudan's civil war, tensions at the southern entrance to the Red Sea, challenges in the Horn of Africa, and unresolved disputes with Ethiopia over water rights and security concerns.
Egypt, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Türkiye, Israel, and Iran possess significant political, military, economic, and diplomatic influence that allows them to impact regional stability in the Middle East.
Egypt, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Türkiye have collectively called for an immediate cessation of hostilities in Gaza and Lebanon and an end to all military operations in the region.
The potential forced displacement of Palestinians from Gaza remains a plausible threat to Egypt's national security, with the possibility that more than two million Palestinians could be pushed toward the Egyptian border if the Gaza Strip becomes uninhabitable.
Egypt, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Türkiye have provided humanitarian relief to affected Palestinian and Lebanese populations and coordinated diplomatic efforts to press global powers to intervene in the Middle East.
The 1979 Egyptian-Israeli peace treaty established diplomatic relations between Egypt and Israel, but Israel's current leadership is no longer considered a reliable partner for regional peace or diplomacy by the author.
Israel's ongoing war in Gaza, obstruction of humanitarian aid, and disregard for Egypt's red lines regarding the Philadelphi Corridor and the Rafah crossing have placed the peace treaty between Egypt and Israel in a crisis.
The Egyptian government initially adopted a neutral 'dialogue with all parties' approach to the Sudanese conflict to safeguard national security and protect water rights through relations with South Sudan and Nile Basin countries.
Between 2011 and 2013, Egypt focused its foreign policy primarily on the Palestinian conflict and its implications for Egyptian national security, particularly in the Sinai Peninsula.
Israel established bilateral counterterrorism agreements with Egypt and collaborated with Jordan and the United Arab Emirates on water resource management.
Egypt and Saudi Arabia have refrained from direct or proxy military involvement in current regional conflicts, distinguishing them from other key players.
Due to the influx of refugees and the humanitarian crisis in Sudan, the Egyptian government shifted to actively supporting the Sudanese army against the Rapid Support Forces and providing aid to official Sudanese institutions.
The United Arab Emirates is exploring collaborations with Saudi Arabia and Egypt to stabilize Syria and the broader Levant region to mitigate risks associated with regional instability.
The Egyptian government coordinated with the United Arab Emirates and France to curb the Libyan civil war and foster national consensus.
The second disengagement agreement between Egypt and Israel, facilitated by U.S. diplomatic efforts in September 1975, led to subsequent negotiations and the restoration of the Sinai Peninsula to Egyptian sovereignty.
Egyptian diplomacy advocated for the integration or dissolution of militias, disarmament, and compensation for militia members to restore stability and preserve territorial integrity in Sudan.
Türkiye engaged in security and diplomatic dialogue with Egypt, which resulted in the restriction of Muslim Brotherhood propaganda against the Egyptian government.
Before October 7, 2023, regional actors adopted varied strategies to increase security: Saudi Arabia sought to ease tensions with Iran, the United Arab Emirates focused on deepening cooperation with Israel, Egypt prioritized national security amidst domestic challenges, and Türkiye reduced its engagement in regional conflicts.
Israel and Egypt collaborate to manage border tensions and address crises related to Gaza.
Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, and Egypt are increasingly prioritizing diplomacy and nonviolent foreign policies over military involvement in protracted conflicts to address their national security concerns.
The 2011 political upheavals in the Middle East resulted in the toppling of regimes in Tunisia and Egypt, the onset of civil wars in Libya, Syria, and Yemen, and increased pressure on Jordan and Morocco to implement reforms.
The feasibility of a collective regional security endeavor led by Saudi Arabia, Egypt, the UAE, Türkiye, Israel, and Iran is contingent on overcoming significant obstacles, including mutual distrust, conflicting strategic goals, and the divergent policies of their respective governments.
By the beginning of 2014, Egypt's foreign policy regained momentum, but encountered a Middle East characterized by unprecedented threats and dangers.