Knowledge Tree
Gulf states
Also known as: Gulf Arab states
synthesized from dimensionsThe Gulf states, primarily comprising the nations bordering the Persian Gulf, are defined by their historically oil-dependent economies and their increasingly assertive, multifaceted roles in regional diplomacy and global geopolitics. These states are currently undergoing a profound transition, moving away from a singular reliance on energy exports toward ambitious economic diversification strategies, such as Saudi Arabia’s Vision 2030. This shift involves significant investments in sectors like artificial intelligence, tourism, and green energy, including hydrogen production economic diversification efforts.
The core of their foreign policy is driven by a prioritization of regional stability, which they view as an absolute prerequisite for their long-term economic security peace essential for diversification. This pursuit of stability is complicated by deep-seated regional tensions, particularly the rivalry between the Sunni-majority Gulf states and the Shia-led Iranian regime, a dynamic that has been exacerbated since the 1979 Islamic Revolution awakened sectarian sensitivities. Consequently, the Gulf states remain highly vulnerable to regional conflicts, harboring persistent fears regarding potential disruptions to energy transit, such as the closure of the Straits of Hormuz Hormuz closure fears.
In response to these threats, the Gulf states have adopted a strategy of cautious neutrality and active de-escalation cautious neutrality strategy. While they maintain deep security concerns regarding Iran and the broader US-Israel-Iran conflict, they have demonstrated a marked reluctance to participate in direct military strikes against Iran, often pledging not to allow their territory to be used for such attacks pledge against attacks. This posture is informed by a historical sense of alienation, most notably during the 2015 JCPOA negotiations, from which they felt excluded, fueling significant regional resentment furious over JCPOA exclusion.
To navigate this complex landscape, the Gulf states have increasingly positioned themselves as regional mediators. Their approach is characterized by a "positive" style of diplomacy that favors informal networks, consensus-building, and privacy over the more transparent, democratic-centric models often favored by Western powers positive mediation style. This mediation is deeply rooted in cultural and linguistic affinities, utilizing traditional concepts such as *majlis* and *Sulh* to facilitate amicable settlements majlis and Sulh in mediation.
Despite their growing influence in a multipolar world, the Gulf states face significant challenges. Their mediation efforts are sometimes perceived as biased due to their existing political and economic ties to various regional actors mediation perceived as biased, and their active involvement carries the inherent risk of inadvertently exacerbating existing rivalries risk exacerbating rivalries. Nevertheless, their shift toward economic diplomacy and their role in high-stakes negotiations—such as those concerning Gaza ceasefires—underscore their emergence as pivotal, if cautious, architects of regional order Gulf states active in diplomacy.
Model Perspectives (2)
openrouter/x-ai/grok-4.1-fast definitive 88% confidence
Gulf states are increasingly active in regional diplomacy and mediation, as noted by Mona Yacoubian of CSIS, including roles in Gaza ceasefire negotiations and incentives for deals Gulf states active in diplomacy. The Washington Institute highlights their cultural and linguistic affinities aiding mediation cultural affinity aids mediation, rooted in concepts like majlis and Sulh for amicable settlements majlis and Sulh in mediation, with a discreet style emphasizing privacy and relationships discreet mediation style. Challenges include perceptions of bias due to ties with parties mediation perceived as biased. They prioritize economic diversification from hydrocarbons, investing in AI, tourism, and green energy like hydrogen economic diversification efforts, but fear Iran-related disruptions to plans like Saudi Vision 2030 conflict jeopardizes diversification and Straits of Hormuz closure Hormuz closure fears. Strategies involve cautious neutrality cautious neutrality strategy, de-escalation de-escalation strategy, and pledges against hosting attacks on Iran pledge against attacks, amid concerns over Iranian strikes and Houthi threats. CSIS reports their exclusion from 2015 JCPOA talks heightened tensions JCPOA exclusion recounted. In a multipolar world, their location and clout enhance mediation influence multipolar world influence.
openrouter/x-ai/grok-4.1-fast 85% confidence
Gulf states are depicted as oil-dependent economies vulnerable to regional conflicts, with heavy reliance on energy exports creating fears over disruptions like the potential closure of the Straits of Hormuz Gulf states dependent on energy exports, according to CSIS. Their long-term diversification plans, such as Saudi Arabia's Vision 2030, face risks from Iran-related conflicts that could destroy economic strategies diversification plans at risk, per CSIS warnings. Amid tensions exacerbated by Iran's Shia power status opposing Sunni-majority Gulf states sectarian tensions from Iran (Middle East Monitor) and the 1979 Islamic Revolution awakened sectarian sensitivities (Middle East Council on Global Affairs), Gulf states pursue accommodation with Iran to reduce tensions policy of accommodation toward Iran, as noted by CSIS. In the current US-Israel-Iran conflict, they harbor fears of instability fears toward Iranian regime (Stimson Center), remain reluctant to join attacks reluctant to join US-Israeli attacks but may if targeted may join if attacked, and prioritize de-escalation aim to de-escalate (The Loop). They view peace as vital for economic security peace essential for diversification (The Washington Institute). Gulf states are increasingly active in mediation, using a 'positive' style focused on informal networks, consensus, and stability over Western democratic emphasis positive mediation style, informal networks emphasis, and stability prioritization (The Washington Institute), though risks include exacerbating rivalries risk exacerbating rivalries. Historically, they felt excluded from 2015 JCPOA talks, fueling anger furious over JCPOA exclusion (CSIS). Recent foreign policy shifts emphasize economic diplomacy shift to trade-focused policy (Middle East Institute).
Facts (101)
Sources
The Arab Approach to Mediation—Reshaping Diplomacy in a ... washingtoninstitute.org 32 facts
claimThe Gulf states possess cultural and linguistic affinity with many conflict-affected regions in the Middle East and beyond, which serves as a significant asset for their mediation efforts.
claimGulf states face the challenge that their mediation efforts may be perceived as biased or motivated by self-interest, particularly when they maintain strong ties to one of the conflicting parties, potentially undermining their credibility.
claimThe concepts of the majlis and Sulh are fundamental to the Gulf states' approach to mediation, with the majlis providing the physical and cultural space for conflict resolution and Sulh providing the intangible framework that emphasizes amicable settlement and restoring peace.
claimGulf states utilize mediation services as a diplomatic tool because they are capable of producing outcomes that are effective while maintaining the privacy and trust of the involved parties.
claimThe Gulf states' mediation efforts could be undermined if they are perceived as being driven primarily by their own economic or geopolitical interests rather than a genuine commitment to conflict resolution.
claimGulf states utilize a mediation style characterized by discretion, the formation of enduring relationships, and a preference for private negotiations over public displays of disagreement, which is rooted in Arab tradition.
claimGulf states leverage their geographic position as crossroads, robust international trade relations, and ambitions to be global business hubs to enhance their influence and capability in mediation.
claimMonitoring developments regarding the Gulf states' role and methods in international conflict resolution and their commitment to human rights principles is crucial for a comprehensive understanding of these topics.
perspectiveGulf states should prioritize investment in conflict management and preventive diplomacy alongside traditional mediation and conflict resolution efforts.
claimAs global power dynamics shift toward a multipolar world, the Gulf states are positioned to assert influence and take a more prominent role in conflict resolution due to their strategic location, economic clout, and growing diplomatic capabilities.
claimGulf states' mediation approach emphasizes a culturally sensitive and context-specific methodology, patience, persistence, and a long-term perspective.
claimTo mitigate risks to the legitimacy of their mediation initiatives, the Gulf states must demonstrate high transparency, impartiality, and inclusivity while working closely with regional and international partners.
claimGulf states reject the Western "carrot and stick" approach to mediation due to cultural antipathy and limited availability of such tools, preferring to leverage their economic strength as middle powers.
claimThe conflict resolution approach of the Gulf states is fundamentally rooted in cultural values of honor and consensus.
claimGulf states employ quiet diplomacy, characterized by mutual respect and confidentiality, to resolve disputes and prevent escalation caused by social media polarization and global attention.
perspectiveGulf states view conflict resolution as a process of fostering relationships, interdependence, and cooperation among former adversaries rather than a singular event.
claimThe Gulf states' economic and political clout can help mobilize resources and incentives to support mediation efforts, thereby complementing the United Nations' peacebuilding and development initiatives.
claimThe Gulf states' role in international mediation is expected to continue evolving and expanding, influenced by factors such as the changing geopolitical landscape, generational shifts, and technological advancements.
claimGulf states' mediation initiatives risk inadvertently exacerbating regional rivalries, as they may be perceived as extensions of existing political, economic, and ideological competition rather than neutral efforts to promote peace.
claimGulf states utilize a "positive" mediation style that prioritizes achieving broad objectives over maintaining rigid redline positions.
claimThe Gulf states' mediation style is characterized by an emphasis on informal networks, personal relationships, and cultural understanding, which can be more effective than Western methods in conflicts where historical grievances or perceptions of bias hinder trust.
claimGulf states view regional peace and security as essential for the success of their economic diversification strategies, the protection of resource supply lines, and the security of trade routes.
claimA younger generation of leaders in the Gulf states is expected to bring fresh perspectives and innovative approaches to mediation, drawing on their exposure to global education, diverse networks, and technological savvy.
claimGulf states can enhance peacebuilding by linking mediation efforts to broader initiatives that promote economic integration, infrastructure development, shared prosperity, and cultural preservation.
claimGulf states face the challenge of navigating increasing global conflict complexity, specifically the growing role of non-state actors, which they have uniquely contended with over the last three decades.
claimThe Gulf states' approach to conflict resolution is strategic and culturally sensitive, emphasizing consensus-based solutions to facilitate face-saving in diplomatic relations.
claimReliance on personal relationships and informal communication channels in Gulf states' mediation may limit their ability to engage in formal and institutionalized processes.
claimThe Gulf states' approach to mediation is characterized by a focus on stability, economic interests, discretion, confidentiality, and consensus-building.
claimGulf states' mediation efforts could potentially operate in parallel or competition with United Nations initiatives, leading to risks such as duplication, fragmentation, or contradictory approaches.
claimTo maximize collaboration and mitigate risks of duplication, the Gulf states and the United Nations need to establish clear frameworks and mechanisms for communication, coordination, and mutual support.
claimGulf states are increasingly engaging in mediation efforts, reflecting the growing influence of middle powers in international politics and the struggle of traditional mediators to adapt to a multipolar, interconnected world.
perspectiveThe Gulf states' mediation strategy prioritizes stability, which contrasts with the Western nations' approach that typically centers on promoting democratic values and human rights in conflict resolution.
United States and Iran on the Brink: What's at Stake? - CSIS csis.org 25 facts
claimMona Yacoubian notes that Gulf states are playing an increasingly active role in regional diplomacy, including participating in Gaza ceasefire negotiations and offering incentives for potential deals.
claimGulf states are concerned that a conflict with Iran would jeopardize their long-term economic diversification plans, such as Saudi Arabia's Vision 2030 and 2040, and their significant investments in artificial intelligence.
accountAmbassador Ziadeh recounts that Gulf states were excluded from the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) negotiations, which were conducted as a secret process.
accountFollowing the initial exclusion of Gulf states from the 2015 JCPOA negotiations, Wendy Sherman, a member of the US negotiating team, initiated weekly informational sessions with GCC and other Arab ambassadors to bring them into the process and mitigate strong regional tensions.
claimGulf states fear that a closure of the Straits of Hormuz by Iran would prevent the export of their energy products, which still constitute a significant portion of their GDP.
claimGulf states are attempting to diversify their economies away from a reliance on hydrocarbons by expanding into trade, investment, tourism, and entertainment.
perspectiveSome Gulf states hold a vision of a future where Iran is more integrated into the regional economy.
claimRegional actors, including key Gulf states, have encouraged the Trump administration to pursue a negotiated solution regarding rising tensions between the United States and Iran.
claimEconomic diversification efforts in Gulf states are dependent on maintaining regional stability.
claimGulf states are adapting their diplomatic strategies by learning how President Donald Trump operates and implementing their own playbooks to maintain relations and mitigate potential damage.
claimGulf states are concerned about the potential for civil unrest, lack of law enforcement, and the creation of ungoverned spaces that could allow new, hostile actors to emerge if US military action against Iranian leadership occurs.
accountThe Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) conducted military maneuvers near the Straits of Hormuz, which caused concern among Gulf states.
claimGulf states are adapting their diplomatic approach to President Donald Trump by learning his operational style and implementing their own strategic playbooks.
claimGulf states are concerned that U.S. military action against Iran could result in retaliation that impacts the Gulf states themselves.
perspectiveGulf states prioritize regional and regime stability, viewing current regional tensions as incompatible with these goals.
accountThe Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) conducted military maneuvers near the Straits of Hormuz, which caused significant concern among Gulf states.
claimMona Yacoubian, director of the Middle East program at CSIS, stated that regional actors, including key Gulf states, have encouraged the Trump administration to seek a negotiated solution to tensions with Iran.
claimGulf states are being warned that their long-term economic diversification plans, such as Vision 2030 and Vision 2040, are at risk of destruction if a conflict with Iran occurs.
claimGulf states remain heavily dependent on energy exports for their GDP, creating a significant fear regarding the potential closure of the Straits of Hormuz.
claimIran has communicated to Gulf states that a larger war is strategically advantageous to Iran, which has motivated Gulf states to seek closer ties with Iran to avoid being targeted.
accountIn recent years, Gulf states have pursued a policy of accommodation toward Iran in an effort to reduce regional tensions and establish a modus vivendi.
accountAmbassador Ziadeh recalls that while working at the U.S. State Department in charge of the Arabian Peninsula, she received complaints from Washington-based ambassadors regarding the exclusion of Gulf states from the JCPOA process.
accountAmbassador Ziadeh recounts that during the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) negotiations, Gulf states were excluded from the process, which was conducted in secret, leading to significant anger among Gulf leadership.
claimAn increase in Iranian crude oil supply could lower global oil prices, which would negatively impact the budgets of Gulf states that are financing economic transformation projects such as Vision 2030.
claimAmbassador Ziadeh states that Gulf states were furious upon discovering they had been excluded from the 2015 JCPOA negotiations.
Military escalation and diverging regional strategies in the Middle East theloop.ecpr.eu Mar 11, 2026 4 facts
perspectiveGulf states prioritize economic development, technological investment, and socio-economic reforms, all of which require predictable security conditions to succeed.
claimGulf states in the Middle East are pursuing a strategy of de-escalating conflict, while Iran is preparing for a prolonged war of attrition for survival by exploiting regional pressure points.
claimSaudi Arabia and other Gulf states have pledged not to allow external powers to launch attacks on Iran from their territory to protect their national interests and domestic security.
claimGulf states aim to de-escalate conflict in the Middle East.
How the War in Iran Is Shaping Gulf Collective Consciousness mecouncil.org Mar 10, 2026 4 facts
claimCautious neutrality is a deliberate strategy used by Gulf states to protect developmental gains from the repercussions of open conflicts.
claimGulf states prioritize state protection and stability over emotional alignment when missiles approach maritime routes, energy facilities are targeted, or supply chains are disrupted.
claimThe 1979 Islamic Revolution awakened dormant sectarian sensitivities within Gulf states.
claimGulf states interpret Iranian regional moves as part of a long-term strategy to expand influence rather than as tactical responses to international pressure.
After Khamenei: Regional Reckoning and the Future of Iran's Proxy ... stimson.org Mar 2, 2026 4 facts
claimArab countries, particularly Gulf states, harbor fears toward the Iranian regime and believe the current conflict has punctured the stability they had previously cultivated.
claimGulf states are currently reluctant to join US-Israeli attacks against Iran and hope to see the hostilities end as quickly as possible.
claimGulf states are reluctant to join US-Israeli attacks against Iran in the short term, hoping to end hostilities quickly, but may join the war if Iranian attacks on their territories continue.
claimGulf states may decide to join the war if Iranian attacks on their territories continue.
The Middle East Conflict and the Future of the Region's Political Order internationalaffairs.org.au Mar 17, 2026 3 facts
measurementEight U.S. soldiers and several additional individuals in Gulf states have been killed as the conflict has spread across the region following the 28 February 2026 strikes.
measurementEight U.S. soldiers and several additional individuals in Gulf states have been killed as the conflict has spread across the region.
measurementEight U.S. soldiers and several additional individuals in Gulf states have been reported killed as the conflict between the United States, Israel, and Iran has spread across the region.
War in the Middle East and the Role of AI-Powered Cyberattacks manaramagazine.org Mar 13, 2026 3 facts
claimThe conflict involving Israel, the United States, and Iran, with Gulf states involved, may be remembered as the moment when AI-powered cyberwar became a permanent feature of global conflict.
claimThe conflict involving Israel, the United States, and Iran, with Gulf states involved, is characterized by the author as a potential turning point where AI-powered cyberwar becomes a permanent feature of global conflict, alongside traditional military assets like missiles and drones.
claimIran-linked hackers have targeted IP cameras across Israel and Gulf states to gather military intelligence, according to a report by Security Affairs published on March 7, 2026.
The Expanding Iran War - ISPI ispionline.it 2 facts
perspectiveAnkara views the escalating conflict with deep concern, condemning US-Israeli strikes on Iran while simultaneously criticizing Tehran’s decision to widen the war by targeting Gulf states.
perspectiveThe current priority for Gulf states regarding the conflict with Iran is to manage the situation carefully while avoiding further escalation.
Power Transition in the Middle East: The Intersection of US Global ... populismstudies.org Mar 15, 2026 2 facts
claimThe Organization of Islamic Cooperation (OIC) condemned Israeli attacks on Iran, a stance that coexists with muted and ambivalent official reactions from Gulf states.
referenceAssociated Press reporting emphasized that political elites in Gulf states are angry at the United States for exposing them to retaliation without providing sufficient warning or protection.
The Limits of Iran's Proxy Empire | The New Yorker newyorker.com Mar 12, 2026 2 facts
Twenty questions (and expert answers) about the Iran war atlanticcouncil.org Mar 11, 2026 2 facts
claimKurdish forces could stretch the Iranian regime's resources thin and reduce military pressure on the Gulf states and Israel.
claimIf Kurdish forces receive sufficient support, they could pin down Iranian security forces in the west, potentially allowing unarmed protesters in major cities to demonstrate without being massacred.
Opportunities for Collective Regional Security in the Middle East carnegieendowment.org Mar 5, 2025 2 facts
claimTo achieve long-term objectives in Syria, such as integrating Turkish-backed militias into governance, pressuring Kurdish factions, returning Syrian refugees, and spearheading reconstruction, Türkiye must coordinate with Iran, Israel, Egypt, and Gulf States.
accountBefore 2011, Türkiye maintained positive relations with Iraq and Iran and actively fostered trade, economic, and political collaborations with Gulf states, Egypt, and Arab countries in North Africa.
The Persian Gulf TV War by Douglas Kellner (http://www.gseis.ucla ... pages.gseis.ucla.edu 2 facts
quoteOn August 3, 1990, the New York Times editorial board stated: "The U.S. has no treaty obligation to come to Kuwait's aid. But the gulf states and most nations still look to Washington for leadership and help in organizing action. President Bush has responded with the right lead--a strong national stand and a strong push for collective diplomacy."
accountThe Carter administration attempted to secure agreements with Gulf states to build naval and air bases in the region, but only Oman agreed to a permanent U.S. military presence.
5 key factors shaping Iran's foreign policy calculus mei.edu May 1, 2025 2 facts
How active have Iran's proxy groups been since the start of the war? theconversation.com Mar 20, 2026 1 fact
perspectiveNadwa al-Dawsari of the Middle East Institute suggests that Iran may be holding Houthi intervention in reserve, potentially to use long-range missile and drone attacks against Gulf states and Israel later in the conflict.
How the war in Ukraine changed Russia's global standing | Brookings brookings.edu Apr 2, 2025 1 fact
claimPrior to the 2022 invasion of Ukraine, Russia had established itself as a regional player in the Middle East capable of maintaining diplomatic communication with Saudi Arabia, Egypt, the Gulf states, Iran, and Israel.
The crises in the Middle East: reshaping the region's geopolitical ... link.springer.com Jan 9, 2025 1 fact
claimRussia's regional actions extend beyond Syria to include partnerships with Egypt, Iraq, and Gulf states.
Geopolitical, Strategic, and Humanitarian Implications of ... ardd-jo.org 4 days ago 1 fact
claimMissile interceptor stockpiles are reportedly depleting, which could expose Israel and Gulf states to greater damage if Iran escalates the conflict.
A “Good Deal” with Iran? Requirements for Preventing a Future ... washingtoninstitute.org Feb 12, 2026 1 fact
claimWestern policy concerns regarding Iran include its sponsorship of terrorism, direct and proxy aggression against Israel and the Gulf states, and violence against its own people.
Tracing the geopolitical influence and regional power dynamics in ... link.springer.com Oct 22, 2025 1 fact
claimIran's geographic position links energy reserves from Kazakhstan to Iraq and the Caspian Sea to Gulf states, allowing Tehran to advance regional goals while under international isolation.
The Implications Of Iran's Failed Proxy Strategy - Hoover Institution hoover.org Dec 10, 2024 1 fact
claimThe Houthis in Yemen, who were trained by Hezbollah, have attacked Gulf states and disrupted maritime trade, thereby enhancing Iran's regional leverage.
Iran's Global Posture Hides Domestic Insecurities carnegieendowment.org Mar 21, 2024 1 fact
accountGulf states began reaching out to Iran for cooperation after the United States failed to provide aid following a series of Iranian-sponsored attacks on Gulf territory in 2019.
Geopolitics of the energy transition: between global challenges and ... geoprogress-edition.eu Oct 26, 2025 1 fact
claimGulf states in the Middle East are repositioning themselves in the global energy landscape through major investments in green hydrogen and solar power.
Escalating Middle East Conflict and Its Global Geostrategic ... diplomatmagazine.eu Mar 17, 2026 1 fact
claimTensions in the Middle East have extended to the Gulf region, characterized by reports of drone incidents near government compounds in Abu Dhabi and heightened military alert levels in several Gulf States.
Geopolitical, economic and humanitarian implications of the 2026 ... middleeastmonitor.com Mar 25, 2026 1 fact
claimIran's status as a leading Shia power creates opposition to predominantly Sunni Gulf states, which exacerbates sectarian tensions in the region.
The Middle East, including the Palestinian Question, April 2026 ... securitycouncilreport.org 1 day ago 1 fact
accountThe United Nations Security Council adopted resolution 2817, which expressed support for condemning Iran’s attacks against Gulf states and Jordan.