The Biden administration's adoption of a primacy model would likely define the international arena as an ideological contest between democratic and authoritarian models of governance.
The 'major reform' path for US foreign policy involves high US investment in Europe coupled with high confidence in the development of European capabilities and levels of ambition.
The Biden administration recognizes that public opinion in the United States, across the political spectrum, is increasingly skeptical of the costs associated with maintaining global primacy.
The Biden administration views Europe as a key partner in its foreign policy model due to Europe's support for the international rules-based order and its history of cooperation with the United States.
The Biden administration's foreign policy model prioritizes addressing a perceived crisis of US leadership and international governance over simply reversing the policies of the Donald Trump administration.
The Biden administration views European strategic autonomy as a beneficial strategy to improve European capabilities and enable Europe to shoulder more of the burden on the world stage.
The Biden administration has pledged to pursue a foreign policy for the American middle class, which may prioritize revitalizing American democracy at home over international goals.
The Biden administration faces domestic challenges including the economic fallout of the Covid-19 pandemic, the organization of a mass vaccination operation, and a razor-thin electoral mandate in a polarized country.
The Biden administration views the concept of European strategic autonomy as neither credible nor impactful and will refrain from pushing Europe to bolster its defense capabilities.
The Biden administration intends to prioritize major transnational challenges like climate change and pandemics over making China's rise the central focus of US foreign policy.
The Biden administration's foreign policy strategy involves blending competition and cooperation with China.
The Biden administration considers US leadership indispensable for sustaining a rules-based international order, even if it requires considerable investments.
The Biden administration faces significant obstacles to reforming US foreign policy, including the perceived urgency of countering China's global influence and the persistence of long-standing foreign policy traditions.
The Biden administration considers the renewal of American democracy at home and the defense of American values abroad as two sides of the same coin.
Pursuing a China-centric model would lead the Biden administration to prioritize building an international coalition against Beijing over promoting democracy abroad, potentially reducing the 'Summit for Democracy' to symbolic gestures.
The FIIA Briefing Paper conceptualizes three models for the Biden administration's engagement with Europe, based on two variables: the level of US investment/commitment to Europe and the level of American confidence in European strategic autonomy ambitions.
The Biden administration identifies the collapse of the INF Treaty and the global inability to cooperate on Covid-19 as evidence of the erosion of guard rails in the international multilateral order.
The Biden administration faces difficult choices regarding domestic and international challenges that could significantly impact European ambitions for strategic autonomy.
Key members of the Biden administration, including Jake Sullivan and Kurt Campbell, emphasize the challenge posed by China and advocate for a tougher approach toward Beijing.
The FIIA paper outlines three potential scenarios for the Biden administration's approach to transatlantic relations.
The Biden administration intends to rethink the transatlantic partnership by viewing European strategic autonomy as a long-term asset to be encouraged rather than a threat.
The Biden administration may be forced to adopt a more China-centric foreign policy due to China's actions and global events.
The Biden administration believes that while a stronger Europe might cause friction in the transatlantic partnership, the benefits of a more capable ally outweigh these costs and support the United States' goal of maintaining the rules-based order.
The Biden administration's foreign policy reform path is based on a shift toward 'chastened internationalism,' acknowledging that rebuilding US credibility and repairing damage from the Trump years is a long-term endeavor.
Under the 'Benign neglect' model, the Biden administration would adopt a China-centric approach, accepting the great-power competition paradigm established during the Trump administration while remaining open to consultation with European allies.
The FIIA paper identifies 'benign neglect' as a feasible model for the Biden administration's approach to transatlantic relations.
The Biden administration plans to de-emphasize the paradigm of great-power competition and the binary opposition between democracies and autocracies in favor of a fluid approach that builds shifting coalitions based on specific issues.
The Biden administration is unlikely to prioritize addressing disagreements with European partners regarding digital tax or data privacy because these issues offer fewer benefits for the goal of competing with China.
The Biden administration rejoined the Paris Climate Accord and the World Health Organization (WHO) as part of its early foreign policy steps.
The Biden administration's planned Summit for Democracy is intended to concentrate on rebuilding democracy at home rather than establishing a new bipolar opposition between democracies and autocracies.
The Biden administration rejoined the Paris climate accord and reversed the United States' withdrawal from the World Health Organization.
The Biden administration assumes that avoiding the rhetoric and actions of the Trump administration and restating support for NATO will be sufficient to restore faith in US leadership and align allies with its China policy.
The Biden administration intends to focus its engagement with Europe on areas where it expects alignment on China policy, such as screening foreign investment and addressing Beijing’s unfair market practices.
The 'Benign neglect' model aligns with the Biden administration's goal of addressing domestic polarization through bipartisan support for countering Beijing and fulfilling the pledge to make US foreign policy work for the middle class by tackling China's economic practices.
The Biden administration's prioritization of competition with China limits the United States' capacity to engage with other regions, including Europe.
The FIIA paper identifies 'primacy' as the most likely outcome for the Biden administration's foreign policy, driven by the appeal of restoring the status quo ante and President Biden's background in late 20th and early 21st-century US global leadership.
The Biden administration's foreign policy model assumes that democratic renewal at home requires the United States to shoulder less of a burden on the international stage.
The Biden administration could conclude that if European nations are left to their own devices, they might be wooed by Beijing or pressured by Moscow.
The Biden administration seeks to prioritize democracy, leadership, and human rights in US foreign policy, explicitly aiming to repudiate the neglect of these values observed during the Trump administration.
Under the 'Benign neglect' model, transatlantic relations would likely see a thawing compared to the previous four years, as the Biden administration would avoid the divisive rhetoric and actions used by the Trump administration toward European allies.