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Relations (1)
related 7.00 — strongly supporting 113 facts
China and the United States are engaged in a significant geopolitical rivalry, characterized by competition for influence in regions like the Persian Gulf [1] and the classification of China as a 'revisionist power' by U.S. national security strategies [2]. Their relationship is defined by systemic economic and military competition [3], [4], and the strategic efforts of other nations, such as Iran, to navigate this intensifying Sino-American tension [5], [6].
Facts (113)
Sources
Quest for Strategic Autonomy? Europe Grapples with the US - China ... realinstitutoelcano.org 17 facts
claimThe Biden presidency continued tensions with China, which underscored the structural nature of the rivalry between the United States and China.
measurementThe European Union's economic links with China are stronger than with the United States only in the area of goods imports, a pattern that has persisted since 2020.
referenceThe European Think Tank Network on China (ETNC) examined how European countries were positioning themselves amid the intensifying geopolitical rivalry between the United States and China in 2020.
perspectiveThe prevailing political mood in Europe is characterized by caution, driven by tensions with China and the United States, as well as sensitivity to United States expectations and the political costs of alignment with Beijing.
claimIf Donald Trump's trade policies reduce the European Union's trade surplus with the United States, the European Union may lose its economic cushion, potentially exacerbating tensions with China unless Beijing adopts a more open trade stance.
claimThe United States remains the leading partner for foreign direct investment (FDI) compared with China across all countries surveyed.
claimNational approaches to economic security and the reassessment of dependencies on China and the United States remain inconsistent across European countries, with some nations showing signs of skepticism or limited engagement.
claimThe European Think-tank Network on China (ETNC) argued in 2020 that neither the European Union nor its member states were equidistant between the United States and China.
claimThe assessment that the European Union and its member states are not equidistant between the United States and China remains valid following the inauguration of the second Trump Administration.
claimThe European Union's trade deficit with China is currently offset by a large surplus with the United States.
claimChina ranks ahead of the United States as a source of goods imports for most European countries, with the exceptions of Belgium, Ireland, the Netherlands, and Lithuania.
referenceThe 2022 United States National Security Strategy and the 2022 United States Indo-Pacific Strategy confirm the consensus in Washington that China’s actions undermine United States interests across multiple domains.
claimThe volatility of United States policy under Donald Trump has increased European uncertainty regarding the reliability of the United States as a partner for managing relations with China, supporting Ukraine, and maintaining the global trade regime.
claimIn 2024, the United States overtook China to become Germany's largest trading partner for the first time in nearly a decade.
claimMost European countries maintain deeper security, economic, and societal ties with the United States compared to China.
claimThe United States is expanding export controls on sensitive and dual-use technologies to slow China’s progress in critical areas such as semiconductors and artificial intelligence.
claimThe Trump Administration’s foreign and trade policy and the implementation of the European Union’s economic security agenda may unsettle the stability of economic relations between the European Union, the United States, and China.
Iran's Strategies in Response To Changes in US-China Relations mepc.org 17 facts
perspectiveIran views China as the primary challenger to United States hegemony and a central actor in establishing a new global order.
claimRussia and China have formed networks of partnership with like-minded states and utilized international platforms to promote their visions and constrain the West, motivated by an interest in opposing the US-led, liberal global system.
claimChina brokered a deal between Iran and Saudi Arabia, fulfilling a mediation role that the United States and Europe failed to play in recent years.
claimTehran believes that American global power is declining while China's power is rising, which has dominated Iran's policies and its envisioned regional and global roles.
claimIran's foreign policy strategy in response to changing US-China relations involves deepening ties with China, revising regional policies to align with China's influence in the Gulf, and projecting power by aiding Russia in Ukraine.
claimThe Iranian government presented the “Hormuz Peace Endeavor” (HOPE) during the GCC’s internal crisis with Qatar and the initial stage of the US-China trade war, motivated by a long-held aspiration to undermine United States hegemony.
claimIran has deepened its ties with China beyond business and trade collaboration as a strategic response to shifting dynamics in the United States-China relationship.
perspectiveTehran likely interpreted 2021 statements from Beijing officials as evidence of China's growing strategic influence and its opposition to US involvement in regional security structures.
accountIran and China initiated a nuclear-cooperation agreement in the early 1990s, which was terminated due to US pressure.
perspectiveIranian senior leaders believe that expanding China-Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) cooperation provides an opportunity for Iran to enter China’s realm of influence, which will end the United States-led global system.
perspectiveIran believes that increased collaboration between the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) and China will be to the detriment of the United States.
referenceThe article 'Iran's Strategies in Response To Changes in US-China Relations' is part of a special issue examining the responses of Gulf countries to rising Sino-American competition, edited by Andrea Ghiselli, Anoushiravan Ehteshami, and Enrico Fardella.
claimThe Saudi government welcomed the Chinese-backed rapprochement with Iran due to disappointment with the United States' inability to protect Saudi security.
perspectiveThe Iranian regime, under the influence of the supreme leader, views China as the primary challenger to US hegemony and seeks to strengthen ties with Beijing to maximize Iran's global power.
perspectiveIran's strategic calculus regarding the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries is influenced by the perception of United States decline and the rise of China.
claimIran's relations with China are driven by the need to build and strengthen links with a strong non-Western economic power, particularly during periods of harsh US-led economic sanctions.
perspectiveIran's primary response to the changing US-China relationship is a quest for power projection, which has led Iranian leaders to extend their 'resistance strategy' beyond their traditional regional sphere of influence.
What the Iran War Means for China | Foreign Affairs foreignaffairs.com 16 facts
claimChina's strategic objectives include revising the regional balance in Asia, weakening U.S. alliances, absorbing Taiwan, and building a world less susceptible to U.S. pressure.
perspectiveChinese leaders perceive the United States as a power in decline that is becoming more dangerous because it may increasingly rely on military force as its economic and diplomatic leverage wanes.
claimChinese President Xi Jinping desires a United States that is less reliable, less confident, and less capable, but he also fears a more volatile international system.
perspectiveBeijing fears that a volatile, unpredictable, and unconstrained United States is more perilous to China than a simply weaker United States, as the former destroys the conditions that allow opportunities to materialize.
accountSince 1979, China has accumulated wealth and power by exploiting, pushing against, and building alternatives around an international system built and sustained by the United States.
claimThe war in Iran threatens China's core strategic interests because an increasingly volatile United States is destabilizing the global order on which China depends, rather than because of an acute dependence on Middle Eastern hydrocarbons.
claimChinese leaders evaluate potential actions regarding Taiwan by considering not only whether the United States is distracted by other theaters, but also what kind of United States they would confront in a showdown over the island.
claimBeijing does not interpret every U.S. setback as a Chinese gain, nor does it assume every geopolitical opening must be exploited, preferring instead to wait and calculate based on whether the surrounding environment becomes more stable or chaotic.
accountThe war in Iran forced U.S. President Donald Trump to postpone a meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping that was originally scheduled for late March.
claimChinese strategists view the U.S.-led international system as fraying, noting that recent U.S. military actions in Venezuela and Iran were undertaken with little regard for economic consequences or international law.
perspectiveChinese leaders have historically desired a United States that is strong enough to maintain the global economy and prevent systemic collapse, but not strong enough to constrain China's rise.
claimChina is unlikely to escort shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, pressure Tehran, or attempt to replace the United States as the region's policeman, regardless of the duration of the war in Iran.
claimChinese leaders believe that not everything that weakens the United States necessarily strengthens China.
perspectiveChinese elites perceive the United States as a hegemon that is no longer confident in its own order but still possesses unmatched destructive capacity, which creates risks for China.
claimChinese officials view the current international system as unstable and are attempting to maintain its structure, which they believe is being destabilized by United States policy decisions.
measurementIn the weeks following the start of the war in Iran, gasoline prices in China rose by about ten percent, compared to roughly 25 percent in the United States.
Consequences of the Russia-Ukraine War and the Changing Face ... rand.org 9 facts
perspectiveChina perceives a relative advantage in preparations for a protracted war, assessing that such a conflict would erode United States technological advantages because the United States defense industrial base cannot sustain a protracted war.
claimThe failure of Russian hybrid warfare, which includes military and nonmilitary tools like information campaigns, to deter military escalation has cast doubt on China's ability to deter war with the United States.
perspectiveThe United States and its allies should refine economic coercion tools because Russia is adapting to current sanctions and China is learning from Russia's experiences in mitigating these tools.
claimThe Russia-Ukraine war has weakened relationships between Europe and Russia, and between Europe and China, while strengthening relationships between the United States and its European allies.
referenceMeredith Reid Sarkees and Frank Wayman documented a list of historical conflicts and their major participants in their 2010 book 'Resort to War: 1816–2007', including the Crimean War (1853–1856, France/Great Britain/Ottoman Empire/Russia), the Lopez War (1864–1870, Argentina/Brazil/Paraguay/Uruguay), the Russo-Turkish War (1877–1878, Russia/Ottoman Empire), the Boer War (1899–1902, Great Britain/Boers), the Russo-Japanese War (1904–1905, Japan/Russia), the Russo-Polish War (1919–1921, Poland/Soviet Union), the Italo-Ethiopian War (1935–1936, Ethiopia/Italy), the Korean War (1950–1953, United States/North Korea/China/South Korea), the Vietnam War (1965–1975, United States/South Vietnam/North Vietnam), the Sino-Vietnamese War (1979–1987, Vietnam/China), the Soviet-Afghan War (1979–1989, Soviet Union/Afghanistan), and the Iran-Iraq War (1980–1988, Iran/Iraq).
claimThe relationship between Russia and China has expanded and gained urgency because both countries perceive benefits from cooperating to weaken United States–led initiatives.
claimGreater alignment on European security could facilitate increased U.S.-European cooperation on other strategic issues, such as confronting the risk of Chinese aggression against U.S. allies in the Pacific region.
perspectiveChina has redoubled its interest in undermining United States alliances, which China views as vulnerable because it perceives them as being built on drummed-up crises rather than common interests.
claimIf China provides lethal military support to Russia, the development could suggest that Beijing perceives the United States' capacity for sustained conflict as stronger than expected and would challenge international humanitarian law.
The EU's Open Strategic Autonomy and the challenge of ... globalpolicyjournal.com 8 facts
claimThe Critical Raw Materials Act (CRMA) is a reactive European Union policy designed to reduce dependency on China as a rare-earths supplier and regain centrality in design and fabrication relative to the United States.
measurementThe European Union Chips Act has a budget of €43 billion, which is smaller than the United States Chips and Science Act ($52 billion), the Chinese forecast of $150 billion until 2025, and the South Korean budget of $450 billion until 2030.
claimSince 2018, the European Union has introduced new Open Strategic Autonomy (OSA) tools to mitigate the impact of the US-China trade war and to address measures implemented during the first Donald Trump administration ('Trump I').
claimThe European Union's leadership through the Carbon Border Adjustment Measure (CBAM) has prompted competitive approximation by China, gradual adjustment by the United States (pre-Trump II), and diplomatic openings for joint schemes with Canada, the United Kingdom, and Türkiye.
claimThe European Union's Net-Zero Industry Act (NZIA) serves as a policy response to the pre-existing green components of the United States Inflation Reduction Act and the established primacy of China in select clean technology segments.
perspectiveThe United States' 'dirty growth' policy under the second Trump administration makes the European Union's potential loss of green leadership more significant, as it leaves China as the sole alternative for emerging markets seeking a clean industrial transition.
claimThe Carbon Border Adjustment Measure (CBAM) established the European Union's global leadership in adopting a "polluter import fee" regarding China and the United States, despite criticism from BRICS nations labeling it as "EU green protectionism."
claimThe Critical Raw Materials Act (CRMA) is a reactive European Union measure designed to reduce dependency on China as a rare-earths supplier and regain centrality in design and fabrication segments relative to the United States, utilizing selectively protectionist trade measures and targeted investment for 17 critical raw materials.
Power Transition in the Middle East: The Intersection of US Global ... populismstudies.org 5 facts
perspectiveProfessor Ibrahim Ozturk argues that the 2026 US-Israeli strikes on Iran reflect a strategic intersection of energy security, regional military dynamics, and intensifying great-power rivalry between the United States and China.
claimThe United States aims to keep the conflict with Iran politically contained to prevent the Muslim world from falling under China’s influence and to minimize China’s growing influence in the Global South.
claimVenezuelan oil exports to China are projected to decrease due to a United States blockade limiting available cargoes.
claimThe United States' military actions against Iran are intended to retain strategic control over global energy flows amid rising competition with China.
referenceA European Parliament study notes that since early 2025, EU-US relations have become increasingly tense regarding NATO, Greenland, Ukraine, trade, technology, climate, and China, signaling a deeper split in strategic visions.
We Bombed the Wrong Target Iran's Proxy Network Strategy irregularwarfare.org 3 facts
claimSpain, Chile, Russia, China, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and Egypt have voiced concern or condemnation regarding U.S. unilateral coercive action against Iran's proxy network.
claimChina views the intermittent cycle of Middle East escalation as a way to increase the strategic cost of the U.S. Gulf posture and distract Washington from confronting China in the Indo-Pacific.
claimThe United States faces a 'simultaneity problem' where it must manage crises in Venezuela, Greenland, Ukraine, and Iran concurrently while maintaining deterrence against China in the Indo-Pacific.
Europe's Strategic Shift: Navigating a New Geopolitical Era kashmirtimes.com 3 facts
claimThe United States' 'Pivot to Asia' policy, initiated under President Barack Obama and intensified subsequently, signaled a long-term strategic shift toward containing China.
claimThe European Union is a primary battlefield in the technological cold war between the United States and China, facing pressure regarding Huawei 5G network implementation, Chinese acquisitions in strategic sectors like energy, robotics, and AI, and Chinese efforts to influence global digital standards.
perspectiveFrance advocates for a tougher, more sovereign European position to prevent the European Union from becoming a vassal in the cold war between the United States and China.
The Geopolitical Competition of the United States, China ... journalisslp.com 3 facts
claimThe United States, China, and Russia engage in continuous competition in the Persian Gulf region over energy interests, economic interests, geopolitical influence, and regional hegemony.
claimThe United States, China, and Russia engage in the investment-driven sale and export of security-related goods to countries in the Persian Gulf.
claimS. Ebrahimi and Rezaei analyzed China's Middle East policy and its competition with the United States in a 2012 study.
An Integrated U.S. Strategy to Address Iran's Nuclear and Regional ... carnegieendowment.org 3 facts
perspectiveThe United States should coordinate with the European Union and E3 partners, as well as Russia and China, to build consensus and maintain tools for addressing nuclear and related challenges involving Iran.
claimThe United States and China jointly chair a working group focused on modernizing the Arak heavy water reactor in Iran to prevent it from producing weapons-grade plutonium.
claimThe Carnegie Endowment for International Peace operates a global network of policy research centers in Russia, China, Europe, the Middle East, India, and the United States.
Transatlantic relations and European strategic autonomy in the ... - FIIA fiia.fi 2 facts
claimIn a primacy model, the United States would view China as part of a broader authoritarian challenge to liberal democracies, which also includes Russia, Iran, and North Korea.
claimThe European Union's proposed 'EU-US agenda for global change' would likely struggle to gain traction in Washington if the United States adopts a China-centric foreign policy.
Policy Steps to Prevent a Nuclear Iran | The Washington Institute washingtoninstitute.org 2 facts
measurementIranian oil exports increased to nearly 2 million barrels per day in 2023, the highest level since the 2018 U.S. withdrawal from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), driven by increased demand from China and lax enforcement of American sanctions.
claimDeepening military cooperation between Iran and Russia or China could increase the stakes and risks associated with any potential Israeli or U.S. military action against Iran.
What Is the Iran Nuclear Deal? | Council on Foreign Relations cfr.org 2 facts
referenceThe P5+1 group, which negotiated the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action with Iran, consisted of the five permanent members of the UN Security Council (China, France, Russia, the United Kingdom, and the United States) and Germany, with participation from the European Union.
claimThe P5+1, which negotiated the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action with Iran, consisted of the five permanent members of the UN Security Council (China, France, Russia, the United Kingdom, and the United States) and Germany, with participation from the European Union.
Iran War Unravels U.S. Strategy and Strengthens Russia–China Axis toda.org 2 facts
claimChina is observing the operations of United States carrier strike groups under fire to refine its own military doctrines for potential conflicts in the Indo-Pacific.
accountFrom the Nixon and Kissinger opening to China through the Reagan administration's management of late Cold War dynamics, the United States maintained a consistent strategic principle of preventing a durable alignment between Moscow and Beijing.
Iran's Geopolitical Footprint: Regional Power or Global Contender? moderndiplomacy.eu 2 facts
claimIran has deepened its relationships with China and Russia in recent years, specifically focusing on military cooperation and trade to counter United States influence and sanctions.
claimIran pursues a policy of 'self-reliance' and strategic autonomy, which involves diversifying international relationships and avoiding full dependence on any single power, including the United States, Russia, or China.
Strategic Autonomy or Transatlantic Dependency The EU's Evolving ... strasbourgcentre.com 2 facts
claimThe European Union's pursuit of strategic autonomy is a response to a transformed global order characterized by a multipolar world, the rise of China, and traditional tensions between the United States and Russia.
claimThe European Union lags behind the United States and China in emerging technologies critical to future warfare and economic competitiveness, specifically in AI, semiconductors, biotechnologies, and cyber defense infrastructure.
The EU between strategic autonomy and the transatlantic relationship esisc.org 2 facts
claimA stronger, less security-dependent Europe would be a significant asset to the United States as Washington prepares for a sustained period of great power competition against China.
perspectiveThe United States might benefit from a more strategically autonomous European Union capable of maintaining low-level security competition in and around Europe, given the rise of China, Russian assertiveness, and Middle Eastern tensions.
The European Union's Strategic Autonomy, Transatlantic Shifts and ... frictions.europeamerica.de 2 facts
claimThe European Union is lagging behind the United States and China in key economic sectors, specifically digital technology, artificial intelligence, and green energy, which threatens the long-term prospects for European prosperity.
claimThe European Union lags behind the United States and China in key modern economic sectors, specifically digital technology, artificial intelligence, and green energy, which threatens the long-term prospects for European prosperity.
The Geopolitics of the Russian-Ukrainian War: Implications for Africa ... eu-opensci.org 1 fact
perspectiveRealism theories posit that there is no international institution or agency capable of shielding states from one another, leading large powers like the United States, Russia, and China to constantly compete for dominance and prioritize their own security due to the absence of a global police force.
Europe's Strategic Recalibration: Embracing Autonomy Amid ... hornreview.org 1 fact
claimRussia and China are positioned to react strategically to any reduction in United States involvement and influence within NATO, potentially leading to a global security alliance recalibration.
The European quest for autonomy at a time of shifting paradigms tepsa.eu 1 fact
measurementSixty World Trade Organization member states, including China but excluding the United States and India, have adopted a new, functional dispute settlement mechanism.
Gilbert Doctorow: Russia & China Reconsider U.S. Relations Over ... singjupost.com 1 fact
perspectiveGilbert Doctorow asserts that Iran is capable of looking after its own interests more effectively than external powers like Russia, China, or the United States.
What Does the Iran War Mean for Global Energy Markets? - CSIS csis.org 1 fact
claimThe oil market anticipated a large oversupply of oil due to healthy supply from the Americas (United States, Brazil, Guyana, and Canada) meeting anemic demand growth from China.
Iran War: A Defining Moment for the Middle East—Global Analysis ... ajc.org 1 fact
claimAcross the Indo-Pacific region, most governments have urged restraint and diplomacy regarding the U.S.-Israeli strikes against Iran, with China standing out as the most vocal critic.
Can the European Union Reduce Dependence on the United States? cescube.com 1 fact
referenceThe 'alliance fracture' scenario for EU–US security relations is characterized by a complete collapse of trust in NATO Article 5, leading to a return to nationalized defense policies or competing sub-regional blocs, leaving individual states vulnerable to external subversion from adversaries like Russia or China.
China and Russia's foreign policy in the Middle East and ... wasj.ir 1 fact
claimChina and Russia have increasingly emerged as two major powers shaping regional policies in the Middle East in recent decades, coinciding with a decline in United States influence.
Space and Satellite wrap up - Legal and regulatory ... twobirds.com 1 fact
accountChina and the United States engaged in operational Space Traffic Management (STM) coordination to prevent a potential satellite collision, marking the first known instance of such coordination between the two nations.
The Strategic Dilemmas : Iranian Politics, the U.S. strategy ... hornreview.org 1 fact
claimGulf states perceive a pattern of reduced United States appetite for major military interventions, a shift toward burden-sharing, and a growing focus on strategic competition with China.
US-China Strategic Competition in Each Domestic Context link.springer.com 1 fact
quoteThe National Security Strategy of the United States, issued in December 2017, classified China and Russia as "revisionist powers" that "challenge American power, influence, and interests, attempting to erode American security and prosperity."
Europe's quest for strategic autonomy in response to Trumpism link.springer.com 1 fact
claimSkepticism toward multilateralism in the United States increases as authoritarian states like China and Russia, along with countries in the Global South, assert their right to participate in international institutions as norm-setting actors.
Quest for Strategic Autonomy? Europe Grapples with the US - Ifri ifri.org 1 fact
claimThe overall trend in European Union foreign policy is characterized by increased distrust toward the United States, cautious and selective re-engagement with China, and a greater willingness to pursue strategic autonomy.