Justification not yet generated — showing supporting facts

• Adding a 25% tariff on all imports from the European Union to previous tariff measures raises the average effective tariff rate (AETR) to 17.0%.
• Under Scenario 3, which includes a 25 percent tariff on all auto imports, the nationwide Average Effective Tariff Rate (AETR) in the United States rises to 12.4 percent.
• The average effective tariff rate (AETR) is a metric used to assess the impact of proposed tariffs by aggregating tariffs across various imported goods and countries into a single number.
• In a simulated scenario involving a uniform tariff on European Union imports, the Average Effective Tariff Rate (AETR) for United States imports from the European Union would increase from 4.4 percent to 29.4 percent.
• The Richmond Fed's 'Scenario 2' economic model adds 25 percent tariffs on goods imported from Canada and Mexico that are not covered under the USMCA, resulting in an overall Average Effective Tariff Rate (AETR) increase from 7.1 percent to 10.4 percent.
• The method for estimating Average Effective Tariff Rates (AETRs) at the county level involves weighting the tariff faced by each industry by its employment share in the county and then aggregating across all industries in that county.
• Under the Richmond Fed's 'Scenario 3' tariff model, Mexico's Average Effective Tariff Rate (AETR) rises to 20.1 percent, Canada's AETR rises to 14.1 percent, and the European Union's AETR increases from 2.5 percent to 4.4 percent.
• Manufacturing and mining industries face the highest exposure under the proposed 2025 tariffs according to the Richmond Fed's AETR analysis.
• Under the Richmond Fed's 'Scenario 3' tariff model, China's Average Effective Tariff Rate (AETR) remains unchanged at 33.5 percent because automobiles from China were already subject to elevated tariffs under prior scenarios.
• Applying 25% tariffs on imports from Canada and Mexico that fall outside the US-Mexico-Canada Agreement coverage raises the average effective tariff rate (AETR) to 10.4%.
• As of March 2025, the implementation of 20% tariffs on all Chinese imports and 25% tariffs on aluminum and steel increased the average effective tariff rate (AETR) to 7.1%.
• Scenario 4 introduces a 25 percent tariff on all European Union imports in addition to the measures in Scenario 3, which intensifies and widens economic exposure to tariffs across the United States, with Average Effective Tariff Rates (AETRs) exceeding 10 percent and in some cases reaching above 14 percent.
• The average effective tariff rate (AETR) is a metric that reflects the average tariff paid across all imports.
• Under the proposed Scenario 2 tariff package, the overall Average Effective Tariff Rate (AETR) for United States imports is projected to increase from 7.1 percent to 10.4 percent.
• The Richmond Fed's 'Scenario 4' economic model introduces a 25 percent tariff on all imports from the European Union, causing the overall Average Effective Tariff Rate (AETR) to increase from 12.4 percent to 17.0 percent.
• The simulated aggressive tariff package results in an overall Average Effective Tariff Rate (AETR) of 17.0 percent across most manufacturing sectors.