Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond ↔ China

Relations (1)

cross_type 2.32 — strongly supporting 4 facts

The Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond analyzes the economic impact of trade policies on China, specifically modeling tariff increases on imports from China in its 'Scenario 2' and 'Scenario 3' reports as described in [1], [2], [3], and [4].

Facts (4)

Sources

Tariffs: Estimating the Economic Impact of the 2025 Measures and ... richmondfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond 4 facts

measurementThe most aggressive tariff package simulated by the Richmond Fed includes a 25 percent tariff on EU imports, 20 percent on Chinese imports, 25 percent on steel and aluminum, 25 percent on non-USMCA goods from Canada and Mexico, and 25 percent on auto imports.

measurementUnder the Richmond Fed's 'Scenario 3' tariff model, China's Average Effective Tariff Rate (AETR) remains unchanged at 33.5 percent because automobiles from China were already subject to elevated tariffs under prior scenarios.

claimUnder the Richmond Fed's 'Scenario 2' tariff model, U.S. industries such as leather, apparel, and textile products face steep tariff increases due to their reliance on imports from China and USMCA partners in categories not covered by trade agreements.

measurementThe Richmond Fed's 'Scenario 2' tariff model assumes a 20 percent increase on all imports from China, a 25 percent increase on all aluminum and steel imports, and a 25 percent tariff on non-USMCA goods from Canada and Mexico relative to the benchmark case.