Knowledge Tree
Charles Schwab & Co., Inc.
Also known as: Charles Schwab & Co., Inc., Charles Schwab
Facts (19)
Sources
Iran War: Potential Impact on Global Equities - Charles Schwab schwab.com 17 facts
claimCharles Schwab is monitoring for a sustained disruption to global energy supplies that causes oil and gas prices to spike further and remain elevated, as this could weigh on earnings expectations.
perspectiveCharles Schwab views international developed- and emerging-market stocks as less attractive over the near term due to negative shifts in probabilities regarding the Iran War and the potential for an energy shock to cause adverse growth, inflation, and financial condition impacts.
claimCharles Schwab observes that while history shows relatively mild impacts to equity markets after geopolitical crises, major energy supply shocks have historically had more severe economic and financial market impacts.
claimCharles Schwab is monitoring for tightening liquidity conditions that raise concerns about financial stability.
claimCharles Schwab uses a three-case scenario analysis—consisting of an upside case, a moderate case, and a downside case—to track the potential economic and market outcomes of the Iran war.
claimCharles Schwab analysts believe that once the conflict in Iran subsides, the weakness of the U.S. dollar could resume.
perspectiveCharles Schwab assesses the likelihood of the upside case for the Iran war as reduced due to the worsening conflict and disruptions to energy and commodity supplies.
perspectiveCharles Schwab analysts maintain a view that geopolitical fracturing and a shift away from dollar-denominated assets is potentially strengthened by the nearly unilateral start of the war in Iran.
claimThe key trigger for Charles Schwab to adopt a more defensive investment stance would be a sustained, supply-driven energy shock that meaningfully lifts recession risk.
perspectiveCharles Schwab would shift to an unfavorable view on international stocks if an initial energy price shock began affecting fundamental macro-economic conditions and raising recession risk.
claimThe downside case for the Iran war, as described by Charles Schwab, involves a prolonged conflict leading to energy and commodity shortages, sharply higher commodity prices, rapidly tightening financial conditions, increased recession risk, and potential inflation.
claimThe Schwab Center for Financial Research is a division of Charles Schwab & Co., Inc.
claimThe upside case for the Iran war, as defined by Charles Schwab, involves a quick end to military operations, with energy production and shipments normalizing and market pricing returning toward pre-conflict levels.
claimCharles Schwab entered 2026 with a positive outlook for international equity exposure, predicated on factors including accelerating earnings, attractive valuations relative to the U.S., favorable sector exposures, and a weaker dollar.
claimCharles Schwab is monitoring for signs that higher energy prices are feeding into broader, persistent inflation, which would limit central bank flexibility.
claimThe moderate case for the Iran war, which Charles Schwab considers its baseline view, involves military operations continuing for several weeks before winding down, with oil prices remaining elevated due to lingering supply impacts and general uncertainty.
accountHeather O'Leary, Senior Manager, Equity Research and Strategy at Charles Schwab, contributed to the report on the potential impact of the Iran war on global equities.
Managing Money: Six Principles of Personal Finance schwab.com 2 facts
claimCharles Schwab & Co., Inc. does not provide tax advice and recommends that individuals consult with a qualified tax advisor, CPA, financial planner, or investment manager for specific individualized tax, legal, or investment planning advice.
claimThe S&P 500® is a product of S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC or its affiliates, and Charles Schwab & Co., Inc. is not sponsored, endorsed, sold, or promoted by S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC, Dow Jones, or Standard & Poor's Financial Services LLC.