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theory of change
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Realist Review on Just Transition Towards Low Emission, Climate ... link.springer.com Jan 5, 2026 13 facts
accountThe research team, the Green Climate Fund Independent Evaluation Unit (GCF-IEU), and the International Labour Organization (ILO) co-developed an overarching working theory of change for just transition interventions in non-Annex I countries, based on existing literature, government documents, and international organization reports.
claimThe updated overarching theory of change provides a high-level framework for the intended causal pathways of interventions contributing towards outcomes consistent with a just transition in non-Annex I countries.
claimThe studies examined in the realist review rarely included explicit theories of change, but provided sufficient granular data regarding intended inputs, activities, outputs, and outcomes to allow the research team to reconstruct and refine an overarching theory of change for just transition in non-Annex I countries.
referenceThe theory of change for ecosystem-based projects includes specific activities such as stakeholder consultations, awareness building, development and implementation of inclusive social policies, skills development and training, and the creation of forest management associations, community-based organizations, and cooperatives.
referenceThe review presents a theory of change for just transition in ecosystem services, which includes key barriers, enablers, and examples of inputs, activities, outputs, and outcomes, as illustrated in Figure 16.
claimThe research team utilized a 'purist' approach when developing theories of change, which involved only including interventions that targeted the precise sector or cross-sectoral combination, because there was sufficient information available in the included studies.
claimThe theory of change for the agriculture and food sector suggests that farmers require incentives and motivation to implement interventions that align with regulatory frameworks for inputs.
referenceThe theory of change for just transition interventions in the combined agriculture, food, and ecosystem services sectors is presented in Figure 18 of the source document.
claimThe updated theory of change for just transition interventions is based on the plans or intentions of the interventions and the contextual factors identified as likely to enable or obstruct progress, rather than the actual results of existing interventions.
claimInputs for the theory of change in ecosystem services and agriculture/food systems are categorized into financing and funding (international loans and domestic public finance) and technical knowledge and support (international support and access to knowledge).
referenceThe theory of change for ecosystem-based projects includes three input areas: local government support and engagement, financing and funding, and data and research such as gender diagnostics.
claimThe overarching theory of change for just transition interventions in non-Annex I countries was refined based on research findings to produce an updated theory of change that synthesizes how interventions are intended to contribute to a just transition.
claimA scarcity of evidence currently prevents the development of a coherent theory of change for the infrastructure sector in non-Annex I countries.