concept

Non-Annex I Parties

Also known as: non-Annex I

Facts (45)

Sources

Realist Review on Just Transition Towards Low Emission, Climate ... link.springer.com Springer Jan 5, 2026 45 facts

claimThe research team's mapping of interventions does not comprehensively evaluate every possible intervention design and its effects, nor do the mapped relationships necessarily represent causal pathways.

claimThe research team reconstructed and refined an overarching theory of change for just transition in non-Annex I countries by extracting granular data on intended inputs, activities, outputs, and outcomes from the examined studies, as explicit theories of change were rarely included in the original literature.

claimThe review found particularly limited data regarding the infrastructure sector in the context of just transition interventions in non-Annex I countries.

procedureThe research team developed sector-level theories of change for energy, food and agriculture, and ecosystem services, as well as a multi-sector theory of change for food/agriculture and ecosystem services combined, to map causal pathways for just transition interventions in non-Annex I countries.

measurementThe review identified 76 academic and grey literature studies containing evidence on interventions potentially contributing to a just transition and low emission, climate-resilient pathways in non-Annex I countries.

claimThe research team developed sector-level theories of change for energy, food and agriculture, and ecosystem services, as well as a multi-sector theory of change for food/agriculture and ecosystem services combined.

claimThe study focuses on existing interventions within non-Annex I countries, distinguishing it from the broader literature on just transition, which consists largely of policy recommendations, conceptual work, and the experiences of Annex I countries.

claimThere is a significant gender dimension to agricultural livelihoods, with a high dependence on agrarian work among women in non-Annex I countries.

claimInvestments in the energy and infrastructure sectors typically prioritize physical infrastructure to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, but non-Annex I countries are increasingly integrating these investments with soft measures.

accountThe research team, the Green Climate Fund Independent Evaluation Unit (GCF-IEU), and the International Labour Organization (ILO) co-developed an overarching working theory of change for just transition interventions in non-Annex I countries, based on existing literature, government documents, and international organization reports.

claimThere is a significant gender dimension to agrarian livelihoods, with a high dependence on them among women from non-Annex I countries, according to Atteridge (2023).

claimThe study on just transition interventions in non-Annex I countries presents findings as the 'incidence of evidence' on activities and associated outcomes, rather than definitive statistical results, due to variations in reporting methodologies and the status of interventions (concluded versus ongoing).

claimThe research team included studies lacking climate or social equity outcomes in their analysis because they provided valuable evidence for developing theories of change and identifying contexts, barriers, and enablers for just transition.

measurementThe research team extracted a dataset of 99 interventions from 76 included studies to analyze the landscape of just transition efforts in non-Annex I countries.

claimThe broader literature on just transition primarily consists of policy recommendations, conceptual work, and the experiences of Annex I countries, whereas this study focuses on existing interventions within non-Annex I countries.

claimThe 'Realist Review on Just Transition Towards Low Emission, Climate Resilient Development' formulated overarching and sector-level theories of change based on the enablers, barriers, inputs, activities, outputs, and outcomes of just transition interventions identified in non-Annex I countries.

claimThe research team included studies with no identified climate or social equity outcomes in their realist review because just transition is in its early stages in non-Annex I countries, resulting in limited evidence of outputs and outcomes.

measurementThe study analyzed 99 interventions across 45 unique countries, representing 29% of the 155 countries classified as non-Annex I.

procedureThe realist review conducted by the GCF-IEU and ILO seeks to answer six specific research questions regarding just transition interventions in non-Annex I countries, including: 1) What evidence exists for interventions in energy, agriculture, infrastructure, and ecosystem services? 2) How can just transition outcomes be methodologically defined for workers, households, and firms? 3) What is the landscape of existing studies and how can they be clustered? 4) How effective are just transition approaches in key economic sectors? 5) How do underlying programme theories illuminate the effectiveness and efficiency of interventions? 6) How can the evidence base be synthesized to support programming by global climate funds and international agencies?

claimThe updated overarching theory of change provides a high-level framework for the intended causal pathways of interventions contributing towards outcomes consistent with a just transition in non-Annex I countries.

procedureThe research team followed a specific procedure to develop theories of change: (1) cluster inputs, activities, outputs, and outcomes across all interventions into categories using a qualitative assessment; (2) compare these categories with the overarching theory of change for just transition shared in the approach paper; (3) refine the theories based on collected evidence and new inputs, activities, outputs, and outcomes.

claimJust transition activities in the agriculture/food sector in non-Annex I countries currently demonstrate a strong focus on social equity and social gains, which may contribute to building adaptive capacity and increased resilience.

procedureThe GCF-IEU and ILO used a 'realist synthesis approach' to analyze enabling preconditions, barriers, mechanisms, and contexts contributing to a just transition in non-Annex I countries.

claimThe studies examined in the realist review rarely included explicit theories of change, but provided sufficient granular data regarding intended inputs, activities, outputs, and outcomes to allow the research team to reconstruct and refine an overarching theory of change for just transition in non-Annex I countries.

claimNon-Annex I countries will likely need to undertake extensive and far-reaching actions as the pace and scale of just transitions increase.

claimThe South African Renewable Energy Independent Power Producer Procurement Programme is an example of an energy intervention in a non-Annex I country that combines climate and social gain-focused activities.

claimEnergy sector interventions in non-Annex I countries aiming at a just transition are achieving positive outcomes beyond reducing greenhouse gas emissions, including the prevention of job losses and improvements in social and gender equality.

procedureThe research team conducted a realist review of just transition interventions in non-Annex I countries by mapping academic literature and grey material through an iterative search process that utilized bibliometric methods and pre-determined, transparent selection criteria for relevance and quality.

claimNon-Annex I Parties under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) are primarily developing countries, some of which are vulnerable to climate change impacts, while others are vulnerable to economic impacts from climate change response measures due to their dependence on fossil fuel production and commerce.

claimInterventions in non-Annex I countries show less evidence regarding the prevention or mitigation of negative outcomes, such as job losses or costs for individuals, compared to the focus typically seen in Annex I countries.

measurementThe Realist Review on Just Transition Towards Low Emission, Climate Resilient Pathways identified 76 academic and grey literature studies containing evidence on interventions contributing to just transition pathways in non-Annex I countries.

claimThe study on just transition interventions in non-Annex I countries formulated overarching and sector-level theories of change based on the enablers, barriers, inputs, activities, outputs, and outcomes identified during data extraction.

claimThe evidence base for just transition in non-Annex I countries is nascent, with particularly limited data available for the infrastructure sector.

procedureThe study on just transition interventions in non-Annex I countries utilized the PRISMA (Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses) framework to document the search and screening process, which involved four stages: initial database searches, title and abstract screening, full-text screening, and a final round of screening during data extraction.

claimThe evidence base for just transition in non-Annex I countries is considered nascent.

claimSoft measures for just transition in non-Annex I countries include social dialogue and broad stakeholder engagement involving governments, state-owned and private firms, regulators, system operators, workers, and end users.

claimThe GCF-IEU and ILO review of just transition interventions draws on both published academic literature and grey literature focusing on non-Annex I countries to provide contextually relevant evidence for decision makers and project implementers.

claimThe activity-outcome mapping in the study on just transition interventions indicates actual pathways towards just transition outcomes, serving as a complement to the high-level theories of change formulated by the researchers.

claimThe Independent Evaluation Unit of the Green Climate Fund (GCF-IEU) and the International Labour Organization (ILO) conducted a global evidence review of interventions aiming to contribute to a just transition in non-Annex I countries, specifically within the sectors of energy, agriculture and food, infrastructure, and ecosystem services.

claimThe updated theory of change for just transition interventions is based on the plans or intentions of the interventions and the contextual factors identified as likely to enable or obstruct progress, rather than the actual results of existing interventions.

claimThe evidence review conducted by the GCF-IEU and ILO focused on interventions in the energy, agriculture and food, infrastructure, and ecosystem services sectors within non-Annex I countries.

measurementThe 76 studies analyzed in the review contained 99 distinct interventions covering a wide range of geographic and sector contexts.

claimThe overarching theory of change for just transition interventions in non-Annex I countries was refined based on research findings to produce an updated theory of change that synthesizes how interventions are intended to contribute to a just transition.

claimA scarcity of evidence currently prevents the development of a coherent theory of change for the infrastructure sector in non-Annex I countries.

claimThe GCF-IEU and ILO realist review sought to answer six research questions regarding the evidence base, methodological definitions, study landscape, sectoral effectiveness, underlying programme theories, and synthesis of just transition interventions in non-Annex I countries.