The Budget Lab at Yale utilizes three distinct approaches to estimate the counterfactual level of prices in the absence of tariffs: (1) using trend estimates reported in Figure 5, (2) using data from 2023-2024 to project forward pre-2025 prices, and (3) assuming prices would have remained at their December 2024 level and using the change in prices during 2025 through December.

Authors

• Person: Not available Organization: Budget Lab at Yale
  Tracking the Economic Effects of Tariffs | The Budget Lab at Yale

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• Tracking the Economic Effects of Tariffs | The Budget Lab at Yale budgetlab.yale.edu Budget Lab at Yale via serper

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• The Budget Lab at Yale entity